Morning briefing: Euro can head towards 1.1200/1.1300

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index slipped after a sharp downward annual revision was seen in the NFP data by 818k and on the release of the FOMC July meeting minutes yesterday that indicated that the FED officials are inclined towards a rate cut in Sep. Traders now price in a 38% probability of a 50bps cut, up from 33% a day earlier and a 62% chance of a 25bps reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Market await US weekly jobless claims data later during the day and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow for further confirmation on a rate cut. Dollar Index may remain weak while Euro can head towards 1.12/1.13, if it sustains above 1.11. USDJPY and EURJPY need to hold above 145 and 160 to continue corrective upmove. Pound and Aussie could face near-term resistances while USDCNY may trade above 7.12 for now. EURINR can dip from 94 while USDINR may continue to trade within 83.85/90-83.40 for the near term.

The US Treasury yields, German yields, and Indian yields look bearish for the near term. The downside view holds intact, especially after the strong downward revision of the US NFP data yesterday which has signaled the rising prospect of a deeper rate cut by the FED in its Sep-24 meeting.

Dow Jones hovers below its immediate resistance. Need to see if it breaks higher or falls back from here. DAX and Nifty remain bullish for the near term. Nikkei is attempting to break above its resistance and looks bullish to target 39000-40000 in the near term. Shanghai remains vulnerable for a fall towards 2800.

Crude prices continue to dip but have crucial support coming up, which if holds, can produce a bounce back in the medium term. Gold, Silver and Copper can fallback while they remain below 2600, 30.00 and 4.20-4.25. Natural gas to remain range bound for a while.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.