Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
The Dollar Index is coming off from the level of 103.5. A confirmed break below 102 can make it bearish to 101-100. The Euro above 1.09/085 can attempt to rise back towards 1.11-1.12. EURINR is trading higher within its range of 93-95. USDJPY and EURJPY can trade within 148-144 and 160-164 region respectively. AUDUSD needs a sustained rise past 0.61 to negate a fall below 0.60. The USDCNY is rising as expected and can soon test 7.35 as well. Pound tested the support near 1.27 and while it holds, it can again attempt to rise towards 1.29-1.30. USDINR is rising in line with our view and can extend it further to 86.0-86.4 in the coming weeks.
The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. But need to see if they are getting a strong follow-through rise from here or not. Resistances are there to cap the upside. While the resistances hold, the broader bearish view will remain intact, and the yields can fall back again. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have risen back and keep alive the broader bullish view. A fall below the immediate support will only negate the bullish view. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI remains stable and lower. There is not much room left on the downside. We expect the yield to hold above its immediate support and rise back in the coming days. The RBI monetary policy meeting outcome is due tomorrow.
The Dow Jones recovered from a low of 36611. A rise past 38200 would be bullish for the index towards 40000. Similarly, DAX and Nifty fell to a low of 18490 and 21743, and recovery was seen above 19700 and 22100, respectively. DAX , while above 19500, looks bullish towards 20500. Nifty, while above 21700, can march towards 22800-23000. Nikkei and Shanghai also recovered from lows at 30792 and 3040. Nikkei looks bullish towards 36,000. Shanghai has the potential to rise towards 3150-3200; it needs a rise past 3120 to confirm the bullishness.
Brent and WTI continue to look weak with more downside likely in the coming weeks. Gold dipped below $3000 but has bounced back; needs to sustain above $3000 to stay bullish. Silver stays bearish below $32. Copper is at a crucial support; holding above can lead to a bounce, else a deeper fall is possible. Natural Gas is holding support and can rise slightly in the near term.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD rises toward 1.1350 after finding support at near nine-day EMA
EUR/USD pauses its two-day decline, hovering near 1.1340 during Thursday’s Asian session. Daily chart technical analysis indicates a weakening bullish bias, as the pair has slipped below the ascending channel pattern.
GBP/USD: Bullish outlook remains in play above 1.3250
The GBP/USD pair drifts higher to around 1.3270, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Mitigating concerns over potential tariff threats by US President Donald Trump exerts some selling pressure on the US Dollar.
Gold price trims part of intraday gains, still well bid above $3,300 mark
Gold price regains positive traction as fading US-China trade optimism revives safe-haven demand. The US economic worries and Fed rate cut bets undermine the USD, also benefiting the commodity. A positive risk tone might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap gains.
SEC Crypto Task Force plans to establish digital asset regulatory sandbox
The Securities & Exchange Commission's Crypto Task Force met with El Salvador's National Commission on Digital Assets representatives to discuss cross-border regulation and a proposed cross-border sandbox project.
Five fundamentals for the week: Traders confront the trade war, important surveys, key Fed speech Premium
Will the US strike a trade deal with Japan? That would be positive progress. However, recent developments are not that positive, and there's only one certainty: headlines will dominate markets. Fresh US economic data is also of interest.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.