Morning briefing: Euro approaches the 1.0600 target

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index is off to a good start as it tested 105.70 on the upside before cooling down. The immediate resistance can be seen around the 105.70-106 region below which the range of 106-103 can hold for some time. Euro is nearing our mentioned target of 1.06 which can be possibly tested before attempting to rise back. USDJPY may trade within 155-152/150 while EURJPY needs to rise above current levels to negate the fall to 162. AUDUSD continues to trade lower within the 0.67-0.65 region. Pound and EURINR have slipped below 1.29 and 90 respectively. A revised range of 1.3150-1.28 in Pound can hold in the near term, but EURINR will have to rise past 91 to negate the fall to 89-88.50. USDCNY is nearing our expected target of 7.22 on the upside. USDINR can head towards 84.50 while above 84.30. Watch out for the IN CPI & IIP release scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have bounced slightly in the early Asian session today. The US markets were closed yesterday. The bounce is likely to be short-lived as the resistance ahead can cap the upside. View is bearish to see a fall in the coming days. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have come down further. But supports are there to limit the downside and take the yields higher again. Outlook remains bullish. The 10Yr GoI has started to move up from the lower end of the range as expected. It can go up within the range now.

The Dow Jones rose to a high of 44486.70 before retracing. We anticipate the resistance at 44500 will cap this rally, likely prompting a pullback toward 42000-41000. The DAX closed above 19400 but will need to gain past 19600 to pick up momentum for a further rise to the 19800-20000 region. Nifty tested support of 24000 and remained firm above 24000. Lack of follow-through buying is making it difficult to rise sharply, keeping it vulnerable to witness a fall towards 23800–23500. Nikkei reversed from 39315 and is headed towards 40000. Thereafter, we need to see whether it extends the rally towards 41000-42000 or retreats back to 39000-38000. Shanghai held above 3400 and is marching towards 3500+.

Crude prices have declined further and can target 71 on Brent and 67 on WTI in the near term. Gold, Silver and Copper have fallen sharply. Gold and Copper can extend the fall further towards 2600 and 4.2 respectively in the near term, while Silver needs to break below 30.5 to see a fall towards 29.5-29.0, else can rise towards 31-32. Natural Gas can test 3.0 on the higher side and fall towards 2.8-2.6 in the near term.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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