Morning briefing: EUR/USD trades lower within 1.0950-1.0800 range

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index if sustains above 104, can head towards the resistance near 105.25-105.50. The Euro is trading lower within its range of 1.095-1.080. A strong break below 1.08 can drag it towards 1.705-1.070. EURINR has immediate support around current levels. Need to see whether it holds or not. USDJPY has risen past 150, contrary to our view and now if sustained, can rise towards 152 or higher. The USDCNY needs to see a strong break past 7.27 to rise towards 7.30, else the range of 7.22-7.26 can continue to hold. AUDUSD & Pound can trade within respective ranges of 0.64-0.62 and 1.30-1.29 in the near term. EURJPY is rising as anticipated and above 160, can attempt to rise back towards 164. USDINR fell below the support near 85.70 and now we will have to see whether it bounces back from 85.50 or extends the fall below it. US Case Schiller, US Consumer Confidence & US New Home Sales data releases are scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have risen well. A further rise to test the next resistance is a possibility. But unless that resistance is broken, there is no change in our view of seeing a fall in the yields going forward. Broadly the trend is down. The German yields remain stable. Outlook is bullish. Any dip from here will be limited. The 10Yr GoI remains lower. There is limited room on the downside. There are good chances for the 10Yr GoI to reverse higher after testing its upcoming support.

The Dow Jones surged above 42200, negating the bearish view, and looks bullish towards 43300-43500. DAX can test the lower end of its 22200-23500 range. Nifty faces resistance overhead near 23700-23800. Watch for price action near the resistance to determine the further view. Nikkei is trading slightly below 38000 and needs a sustained rise past 38000 to negate the fall towards 37000. Shanghai is holding above the support of 3350 and can rise towards 3400-3450.

Brent and WTI have broken higher and may rise further. Gold and silver continue to decline, with downside targets of $3,000-$2,950 and $33.00-$32.50, respectively. Copper needs to stay above $5.12 to remain bullish; otherwise, it may drop to $5.05-$5.00. Natural gas remains weak below $4.00, with further downside possible.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.