Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Dollar Index is coming off as expected and can extend the fall towards 103-102 before bouncing back higher. The Euro needs to sustain its rise past 1.09 to head towards 1.0950-1.1000. Only a rise past 95 in EURINR can take it towards 97. USDJPY can face rejection from anywhere between 149-151 region. EURJPY has moved past 162 and can head towards 164 soon. AUDUSD is rising higher within range of 0.62-0.64. Pound can test 1.30 soon. USDNCY looks ranged within broad region of 7.26-7.22. USDINR if falls below 86.75, can test 86.50 on the downside. Immediate resistance at 87. The US Housing Starts, US Industrial Production & US Capacity Utilization are the data releases scheduled today.
The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. The yields have to breach their immediate resistance in order to go up and avoid falling from here. We will have to wait and see. The US Fed meeting outcome is due tomorrow. It will be important to see if there is any change in their economic forecast. The German yields have come down. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI is still stuck in its narrow range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next direction of move.
The Dow Jones has risen above 41800 and is likely to extend the corrective rise to 42000-42100 before resuming a fall towards 40000-39000. DAX sustained above 23000 and looks bullish towards 24000. Nifty, within the range of 22300-22700, is heading towards testing the upper end of the sideways range to 22700. Nikkei has risen well and is trading slightly below 38000. A rise past 38000 would open the door towards 39000-40000. Shanghai remains stable and is heading towards testing the resistance of 3450.
Crude prices remain below their immediate resistance, which needs to be broken to see higher levels. Gold and silver face near-term resistance, which could push prices back to $2,950-$2,900 and $34.0-$33.5, respectively, on the downside. Copper has risen above $4.90 and may continue to move higher towards $5.20-$5.40. Natural gas has fallen below its immediate support and must sustain below this level to remain bearish towards $3.80-$3.60, otherwise, it could bounce back to $4.20-$4.40.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Gold hits new all-time highs above $3,020, Trump-Putin call eyed
Gold price is printing fresh record highs above $3,020 on Tuesday as Middle East tensions intensify. Israel resumed military operations against Hamas in Gaza after the group rejected US proposals for extending ceasefire. All eyes now remain on the Trump-Putin call.
EUR/USD retreats from fresh 2025 highs, flirts with 1.0900
EUR/USD retreats from fresh record highs and approaches 1.0900 on Tuesday, helped by encouraging US data. Optimism around the German vote on the spending plan and Trump-Putin talks underpin the positive mood despite escalating Middle East tensions.
GBP/USD edges sharply lower after testing the 1.3000 mark
GBP/USD retreats sharply after testing the 1.3000 threshold, now hovering around 1.2950. The US Dollar made a strong comeback early in the American session, helped by upbeat local data and despite mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Focus also on Russia-Ukraine headlines.
Trump-Putin talks raise hopes of a ceasefire – Middle East risk returns
The prospective end to the Russia-Ukraine war has traders excited for a more positive growth outlook in Europe going forward, with heavily industrialised nations such as Germany having suffered under the weight of elevated energy costs in recent years.
Tariff wars are stories that usually end badly
In a 1933 article on national self-sufficiency1, British economist John Maynard Keynes advised “those who seek to disembarrass a country from its entanglements” to be “very slow and wary” and illustrated his point with the following image: “It should not be a matter of tearing up roots but of slowly training a plant to grow in a different direction”.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.