Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
The Dollar Index is nearing support around 106 while the upside in Euro looks capped at 1.0650-1.0700. The Aussie and Pound have been rising well and can continue to strengthen further in the near term. USDCNY is holding well below the resistance 7.25/26 from where a rejection can be expected. The Dollar Yen is trading within the 155-152 range while EURJPY has scope to extend the rise further in the coming sessions while above 162. EURINR, if sustained above current levels, can test 89.50-90.00 in the near term while USDINR is flat below 84.40 and could see a corrective dip to 84.35-84.30 in the near term. US Housing Starts data release is scheduled today.
The US Treasury yields remain stable. They have to fall below the immediate support to make our view correct of seeing a fall going. A strong rise from here breaking the resistance will negate that view. We prefer to stay out and watch the market. The German yields have inched up. Outlook is bullish and the yields can rise more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has dipped from near the range top. That keeps the range intact and a dip within the range is possible now. Eventually we expect the yield to break this range on the upside and rise.
Most indices look weak. The Dow is headed towards 43000 with a possible extension to 42000/41000 while Dax could be vulnerable to breaking below 19000 and fall to 18800/18500. Nifty rose yesterday but it could limit any further upside to 23800 and start falling again towards 23000. Nikkei could range within a broad 37750-39000 zone till next week. Shanghai could be vulnerable to fall towards 3250 or lower on a break below 3300.
Crude prices have recovered sharply in line with our expectations due to the rising geopolitical tension. They can rise further towards 75-76 (Brent) and 72 ( WTI) in the near term. Gold and Silver have bounced back as expected but need to surpass their near-term resistance to see a further rise, else can fall back in the upcoming sessions. Copper has risen slightly and can target 4.2-4.3 in the near term. Natural Gas looks bearish towards 2.6 while below 3.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD hovers around 1.0600 with a positive bias as US Dollar faces profit-taking selling
EUR/USD remains steady with a positive bias, hovering around 1.0600 during Tuesday's Asian trading hours. The upbeat sentiment surrounding the pair is likely driven by a softer US Dollar (USD), as profit-taking follows its recent rally.
GBP/USD trades with mild positive bias on softer USD, remains below 1.2700 mark
The GBP/USD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick and climbs back closer to the 1.2700 mark during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction as investors opt to wait for the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearings before placing aggressive directional bets.
Gold could run into sellers at $2,655 on the road to recovery
Gold price extends the recovery into Asian trading on Tuesday, reversing half the previous week’s decline. The focus remains on the upcoming speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Bitcoin could see another parabolic run following rising institutional interest
Bitcoin (BTC) began the week positively, rising over 3% above the $91K threshold on Monday. Despite the recent rise, BTC could begin another extended bullish move as top firms are increasing their Bitcoin holdings and potentially adopting it as a reserve asset.
The week ahead: Powell stumps the US stock rally as Bitcoin surges, as we wait Nvidia earnings, UK CPI
The mood music is shifting for the Trump trade. Stocks fell sharply at the end of last week, led by big tech. The S&P 500 was down by more than 2% last week, its weakest performance in 2 months, while the Nasdaq was lower by 3%. The market has now given back half of the post-Trump election win gains.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.