Morning briefing: Euro can trade within 1.0750-1.0850

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Good Morning!

Dollar Index and Euro can trade within 104.50-103.50 and 1.0750-1.0850 respectively. Aussie and Pound have risen slightly and needs to sustain the upmove to rise towards 0.6450-0.65 and 1.27 respectively. USDJPY looks bullish to 147 while EURJPY can soon target 159-160 on the upside. USDCNY is ranged within 7.25-7.32. USDRUB seems to be rising within 92-96 region. EURINR has bounced from 89 but needs to sustain to head towards 90. USDINR can trade within 82.50-82.75 for the very near term.

The US Treasury yields have come down. Though there is room to fall more, support can limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The German yields sustain higher. Outlook remains bullish and more rise is on the cards. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down again failing to sustain higher. Further fall is possible before the broader uptrend resumes.

Dow Jones continues to move up and remains bullish to target further upside while above the support at 34000. DAX and Nifty need a strong rise above 16000 and 19500 to turn bullish and to avoid the danger of falling further. Nikkei is rising towards the upper end of the range. Need to see if it breaks on the upside or not. Shanghai has broken below 3125 and may look to come down more towards 3000.

Brent and WTI are holding well below the resistance at $85 (Brent) and $81 (WTI) respectively. Gold has risen above 1950 and can now move up further on the upside. Silver and Copper lack follow-through rise but while above the support at 23.90/80 and 3.73 respectively, the broader outlooks will remain bullish to see a rally on the upside. Natural has fallen back but the downside seems limited to 2.50-2.45.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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