The markets traded somewhat mixed into the close of the first quarter. There was a bit of volatility with the month end and quarter end flows. Gold managed to recover from the losses while the euro traded subdued. Brexit continues to dominate the news as PM May lost a third bid for a Brexit deal. The countdown continues as the UK's new deadline to leave the EU has been extended to April 12th.
USD Holds Gains on Better Than Expected Economic Data
The U.S. dollar managed to hold on to the gains on the last trading day of the month. On the economic front, the personal consumption expenditure data showed a 0.2% increase on the month in February. This was a modest increase from 0.1% in January. New home sales rose 4.9% in February.
Will the Euro Move Higher?
The EURUSD currency pair has been trading subdued as it approached the support area of 1.1217. The Stochastics have turned flat near the oversold levels and this could indicate a modest bounce to the upside. The near term support at 1.1294 remains a key level of interest to the upside. If the euro fails to recover off the current support, we expect a test of 1.1174 to the downside.
Yen Trades Mixed on Tankan Survey
The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan surveys showed a mixed result. Manufacturing sector eased to 12, falling from 19 in the previous quarter and missing estimates. The nonmanufacturing sector was also lower at 21, easing from 24 in the previous quarter. Both the surveys missed the median estimates and came out lower than expected.
Can the USDJPY Maintain the Gains?
The USDJPY currency pair gapped higher on today's open and price action is likely to test the upside near 111.40. Establishing resistance here could potentially confirm the medium term sideways range between 111.40 and 109.84 levels. The bias shifts only if the USD/JPY will be able to break out past 111.40.
Gold's Decline Takes A Pause
Gold prices stalled on Friday after posting strong declines the day before. Price action attempted to retrace the losses from the day before but settled modestly lower on the day. The precious metal remains mixed as investors look to the new trading month and easing concerns about the yield curve.
Will Gold Bounce Off the Support?
XAUUSD prices settled at the support area of 1290 on Friday and are seen posting a rebound off the level earlier today. The Stochastics on the 4-hour time frame indicates a move from the oversold level. There is scope for a rebound which could see a correction toward 1306 at the very least. However, price needs to break above the near term highs of 1299 – 1300.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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