Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered the second rate cut of the year yesterday. Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed doesn’t rule ‘out or in’ a rate cut in December, that the US economy is expanding solidly, that conditions in the labour market eased but the unemployment rate remains low, that inflation ‘made progress’ but not a ‘further progress’ – just progress – toward the committee’s 2% objective but remains elevated’, that the Trump policies won’t have an immediate impact on the US fundamentals as they don’t know how much time it will take the new Trump administration to implement them, and that he wouldn’t step down if Trump asked him to do so.
But the Fed has no choice but to dance to Trump’s tune, whether it likes it or not. That reality comes with the risk of higher-than-otherwise inflation and deserves careful attention.
For now, the probability of another 25bp cut in December is given 71% in the immediate aftermath of the US election and the Fed cut. US yields and the dollar took a breather after the recent rally, and US equities renewed record.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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