Market News Today – US Markets closed at record highs (USA500 4255) and Asian stocks followed but closed mixed after key markets returned after long weekend. Dollar holds on to gains (USDIndex 90.40). EURUSD (1.2125) and Cable (1.4115) little changed. JPY holds the break of 110.00. Yields off 3-mth lows and up to recover 1.50%. USOil rallied again to $71.35 before cooling under $71.00 and the Gold collapse spiked as low as $1845, back to $1865 now. Copper off -2% yesterday too. Overnight – AUD Housing inflation steeper than expected, Bailey talked digital currencies & US passed the grim 600k Covid deaths milestone. Strong UK Jobs data, Claims, Earnings and Unemployment all beat expectations.
Week Ahead – All eyes on Wednesday’s (18:00 GMT) FOMC Announcement & Press Conference. Markets expecting more dovishness with “talk about talking about Tapering” not expected to happen until the July or even September meeting. BOJ & SNB also on the stump. Biden meets Putin Wednesday after NATO summit.
European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, US futures are posting gains of around 0.1%, after another record on Wall Street yesterday. Investors seem to be putting inflation concerns aside for now although mutterings that there could be more lasting shifts in prices are getting louder. For now though the focus is on the FOMC announcement tomorrow. The U.K. pushed out the date for the full lifting of Covid restrictions to July 19.
Today – Empire State Manu. PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, ECB’s Lane, Panetta, BoE’s Bailey, Government supply from the UK, Germany & US.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) USDNZD (+0.26%) has bounced from a big down day on Friday, at 0.7115 and a floor yesterday at 0.7130, to move over 0.7150 and clear of the 20-hr MA. Next resistance 0.7180. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 58 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising and testing 0 line. H1 ATR 0.00072, Daily ATR 0.0060.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD regains 1.0500 and beyond as US Dollar wilts ahead of data
EUR/USD is extending the rebound above 1.0500 in the European session on Wednesday. Traders cash in on the US Dollar long positions ahead of a series if top-tier US data, lifting the pair. The USD/JPY sell-off also adds to the US Dollar downside.
GBP/USD holds gains near 1.2600, US PCE data eyed
GBP/USD extends the bullish momentum to trade near 1.2600 in European trading on Wednesday. The pair remains underpinned by a sustained US Dollar weakness and risk-off sentiment as traders turn cautious ahead of top-tier US data releases.
Gold price climbs above $2,650 on trade war concerns, sliding US bond yields and softer USD
Gold price sticks to modest intraday gains near a two-day high, above the $2,650 level, through the first half of the European session as geopolitical risks and US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans drive haven flows for the second straight day.
US core PCE inflation set to hold steady, raising doubts on further Federal Reserve rate cut
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for October on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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