Market update: Risks raised – Russia reports being fired on

Stuart Cowell HFM

US Stock markets flat into close (US500 +3 pts) after a weak day, no surprises in FED minutes (Jan 25/26) no talk of 50bps rate rises but a lot has happened in 3 weeks. USD & JPY bid on more jitters regarding Ukraine. Gold rallied back to $1875, Oil – very volatile after inventories, contract expiry & news from Iran. Yields widened again but remain elevated. Asian markets also slipped Nikkei (-0.83%) but have cooled into close. US & UK – “Russian troop withdrawal claims “false”. Ukraine denies any missiles from Donbass were fired.

USD (USDIndex 95.85) cools from spike to 96.00 earlier.
US Yields 10-yr closed 2.045 trades at down now 1.998%, 2-yrs remain elevated.
Equities – USA500 +3.94 pts (+1.58%) 4475 -(NVDA beat,) FB -2.02% US500 FUTS cooler now at 4455.
USOil – Topped at $93.00, after inventories, collapsed to $88.00 after contract expiry and positive nuclear deal headlines from both the US and Iran. Trades at $90.80 now.
Gold – Rallied $1850 support to $1875 now.
Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range.
FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1364 USDJPY down to 115.25 & Cable to 1.3585, from a test of 1.3600 after hot inflation yesterday.

Overnight – JPY machinery orders much better than expected, Trade balance slipped significantly. AUD Job creation better than expected and Unemployment steady at.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 32 ticks, U.S. futures are also moving higher. Investors are keeping a weary eye on central banks, which are trapped between fears of out of control inflation and concern that hasty and aggressive central bank action could hit the recovery. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.75 and -0.4% respectively.

Today – US Initial Claims, CBRT Policy Announcement, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, de Cos, Fed’s Bullard & Mester Earnings Standard Chartered (beat); Airbus (beat), Orange, Commerzbank, Walmart.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.43%) Rallied from lows of 0.8400 yesterday to 0.8510 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 68.25 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0015 Daily ATR 0.0060.

Author

Stuart Cowell

HFM

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, c

EUR/USD remains bid, focus stays on 1.1900

EUR/USD has broken its two-day run of losses and is ticking modestly higher on Thursday, hovering around the 1.1880 area as the US Dollar struggles to find clear direction. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected, taking a bit of shine off the Greenback, but markets are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of Friday’s US CPI release.

GBP/USD sticks to the bid bias, still below 1.3700

GBP/USD is trading with decent gains around 1.3650 on Thursday. Indeed, Cable is attempting to shake off the weakness seen earlier in the week amid another choppy session for the Greenback, while a run of disappointing UK data has so far failed to derail the pair’s tentative recovery.

Gold recedes slightly, trades below $5,100

Gold remains stuck in choppy trade on Thursday, deflating marginally just below the $5,100 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar drifts without a clear trend. Softer US Treasury yields across the curve are offering some support, but with markets treading carefully ahead of Friday’s US CPI release, conviction remains limited and price action continues to look hesitant.