US Stock markets flat into close (US500 +3 pts) after a weak day, no surprises in FED minutes (Jan 25/26) no talk of 50bps rate rises but a lot has happened in 3 weeks. USD & JPY bid on more jitters regarding Ukraine. Gold rallied back to $1875, Oil – very volatile after inventories, contract expiry & news from Iran. Yields widened again but remain elevated. Asian markets also slipped Nikkei (-0.83%) but have cooled into close. US & UK – “Russian troop withdrawal claims “false”. Ukraine denies any missiles from Donbass were fired.
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USD (USDIndex 95.85) cools from spike to 96.00 earlier.
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US Yields 10-yr closed 2.045 trades at down now 1.998%, 2-yrs remain elevated.
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Equities – USA500 +3.94 pts (+1.58%) 4475 -(NVDA beat,) FB -2.02% US500 FUTS cooler now at 4455.
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USOil – Topped at $93.00, after inventories, collapsed to $88.00 after contract expiry and positive nuclear deal headlines from both the US and Iran. Trades at $90.80 now.
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Gold – Rallied $1850 support to $1875 now.
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Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range.
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FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1364 USDJPY down to 115.25 & Cable to 1.3585, from a test of 1.3600 after hot inflation yesterday.
Overnight – JPY machinery orders much better than expected, Trade balance slipped significantly. AUD Job creation better than expected and Unemployment steady at.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 32 ticks, U.S. futures are also moving higher. Investors are keeping a weary eye on central banks, which are trapped between fears of out of control inflation and concern that hasty and aggressive central bank action could hit the recovery. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.75 and -0.4% respectively.
Today – US Initial Claims, CBRT Policy Announcement, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, de Cos, Fed’s Bullard & Mester Earnings Standard Chartered (beat); Airbus (beat), Orange, Commerzbank, Walmart.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.43%) Rallied from lows of 0.8400 yesterday to 0.8510 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 68.25 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0015 Daily ATR 0.0060.
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Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD edges lower below 0.6300 on global trade concerns
The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.6280 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Australian Dollar weakens due to global trade concerns ahead of a planned announcement on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump on reciprocal tariffs.
USD/JPY weakens further below mid-149.00s; one-week low
USD/JPY retreats further from the vicinity of the monthly peak touched on Friday and attracts sellers at the start of a new week. Hawkish BoJ expectations and the risk-off mood amid rising trade tensions underpin the safe-haven JPY. Moreover, fears of stagflation in the US keep the USD bulls on the defensive and drag the pair to a one-week low.
Gold rises to near record high below $3,100 amid global uncertainty
Gold price gains momentum to around $3,090 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal maintains its uptrend near a record high amid fears of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump's latest tariffs.
Week ahead: US NFP and Eurozone CPI awaited as tariff war heats up, RBA meets
Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could spur more chaos. US jobs report might show DOGE impact on labour market. Eurozone inflation will be vital for ECB bets as April cut uncertain. RBA to likely hold rates; Canadian jobs, BoJ Tankan survey also on tap.
US: Trump's 'Liberation day' – What to expect?
Trump has so far enacted tariff changes that have lifted the trade-weighted average tariff rate on all US imports by around 5.5-6.0%-points. While re-rerouting of trade will decrease the effectiveness of tariffs over time, the current level is already close to the highest since the second world war.
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