The Federal Reserve is split on the path for rates, and this uncertainty cools the enthusiasm after the soft CPI which triggered a big rally.
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Why the Fed dot plot matters for markets
Interest rates have a critical role in moving financial markets, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is the most influential central bank. The Fed announces its decisions roughly every six weeks, but publishes new forecasts only every three months. These projections are dubbed "dot plot" and consist of an outlook for employment, growth, inflation and interest rates.
Back in March, the median Fed forecast was for three rate cuts, and a smaller number of reduction is expected now, as inflation has generally exceeded estimates in 2024. On the other hand, the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report – published on the same day – showed softer inflation. Markets price two cuts coming this year, with the first in September.
The Fed dot plot is released at 14:00 Eastern / 18:00 GMT / 19:00 London time, alongside the statement. It takes higher significance after the data, and as the bank is set to leave internet rates unchanged once again, in its . Chair Jerome Powell will address the press 30 minutes after the release.
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