Light trade developments match light tradin

Asia Market Update: Light trade developments match light trading; Focus tonight on US Mar JOLTS, with tomorrow on AU Q1 CPI, CN NBS & Caixin Apr Mfg PMIs.

General trend

- Asian stocks were mildly positive today on light news, with Shanghai Composite under-performing at flat and Australia's ASX leading Asian indices +0.8%.

- In trade developments Pres Trump said he would 'soften the blow' for automakers by modifying tariffs on foreign autos to prevent stacking (specifically for Aluminum and Steel tariffs).

- US reports that the sticking point in US-Japan tariff negotiations is the level of Japan’s commitment to buy oil from Alaska pipeline, while the Vietnam PM said specific negotiation plans with US should be ready 'by tomorrow'.

- Meanwhile large US retailers Amazon and Walmart are positioning their China suppliers for discounts (Amazon) as well as resumption of shipments to the US (Walmart).

- US press reports that US foreign and domestic investment pledges now total >$5T since Trump took office, with expected jobs ~451k.

- Canadians keep Liberal Party and PM Mark Carney in power, as expected, as the ruling party wins at least a minority govt with widespread solidarity for Canada concerning the US trade war.

- China PBOC so far maintaining its promise over the past couple of weeks to maintain a stable currency, with another strongest Yuan fix since Apr 7th.

- Aussie miner Fortescue +4.4% as it affirmed FY25 shipments and capex and costs, with Q3 iron ore shipments flat y/y.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% to +0.2% during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted news, using Asian time zone)

- Tue Apr 29th (Tue night US Mar JOLTS).

- Wed Apr 30th JP Mar Retail Sales & Industrial Production, NZ Apr Biz Confidence, AU Q1 CPI, CN NBS & Caixin Apr Mfg PMIs, (Wed eve EU Q1 GDP, DE Apr CPI, US Q1 GDP, US Mar Core PCE).

- Thu May 1st KR Apr Exports, AU Mar Trade Balance, JP BOJ Rate Decision, JP Apr Consumer Confidence (Thu night US Apr ISM Mfg PMI).

- Fri May 2nd KR Apr CPI, KR Apr PMI, AU Q1 PPI, AU Mar Retail Sales, (Thu eve EU Apr CPI, US Non-Farm Payrolls).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Tue Apr 29th Japan.

- Wed Apr 30th Vietnam.

- Thu May 1st China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam.

- Fri May 2nd China.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens flat at 7,998.

- RBA Assist Gov Kent: will end by acknowledging the sharp rise in volatility in FX markets in early April as markets incorporated announcements about the US administration’s tariffs and the subsequent ebb and flow of related news.

- New Zealand Mar Filled Jobs M/M: +0.2% v 0.0% prior.

- New Zealand Fin Min Willis: The Treasury to cut GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 US and China tariffs will slow global growth; Slower growth will impact the Govt books.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens +0.5% at 22,073; Shanghai Composite opens -0.2% at 3,281.

- China Foreign Min Wang Yi: Compromise, retreat will only 'make the bully aggressive' - financial press.

- Alibaba Introduces Qwen3, a new open-source AI with hybrid reasoning – press.

- China MOFCOM: Both China and US firms hurt by US tariffs; China's relevant airlines and Boeing have suffered greatly - statement on Boeing plane deliveries.

- China foreign ministry reiterates not engaged in trade talks with the US; China Pres XI and US Pres Trump did not have call recently [overnight update].

- Hong Kong Mar Trade Balance (HKD): -45.4B v -31.1Be [overnight update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.2029 v 7.2043 prior (strongest since Apr 7th).

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY341B in 7-day reverse repos; Net injects CNY120B v injects CNY103B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 closed for holiday.

- Follow up: Japan considering to allow more car imports under 'simple safety rules' - Japaneses press.

- Sticking point in Japan tariff negotiations is level of commitment to buy oil from Alaska pipeline - Fox's Gasparino X post.

- Japan's Econ Revitalization Min and Trade Negotiator Akazawa: To travel to US between April 30 and May 2nd; No change to our stance - we are demanding full removal of US tariffs [overnight update].

- Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement related to outright bond buying operations for May; Maintains pace [overnight update].

Korea

- Kospi opens flat at 2,550.

- South Korea Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: +9.2% v 4.4% prior.

- South Korea Acting President Han: Must overcome obstacles by July, when US trade talks will be concluded (July 8th is the 90-day deadline) - financial press.

Other Asia

- Follow up Vietnam PM: Specific negotiation plans with US should be ready 'by tomorrow' - financial press.

- Japan, Malaysia exploring 'broader economic ties', including AI, automotive - financial press.

- Indonesia and Japan plan to deepen cooperation in the field of agriculture - financial press.

- Philippines Trade Sec Roque: Aiming for zero tariffs with US.

- Taiwan Mar Monitoring Indicator: 34 v 37 prior [overnight update].

North America

- US Foreign and domestic investment pledges now total >$5T under Trump Admin, expected to add ~451k jobs in the US - Fox News.

- Amazon said to be seeking "sharp" discounts from suppliers (esp China), amid tariff war – FT.

- Walmart reportedly has told some China suppliers to resume shipments to US - SCMP (update).

- (CA) Follow up: Canada Ruling Liberals will need to form a minority govt, with other parties as coalition partners - Canada media.

- (CA) Canada Ruling Liberals win election (as expected), re-elected to 4th term - Canada media.

- (US) Pres Trump said to 'soften blow' of auto tariffs; Set to modify tariffs on foreign autos; Changes would aim to prevent stacking - WSJ, citing sources.

- (MX) Mexico opens anti-dumping investigation into US PVC imports - press.

- (MX) Mexico Mar Unemployment Rate: 2.2% v 2.4%e.

- (US) Energy Sec Wright: US LNG supplies to Europe will continue to grow in meaningful way; Declines to comment on scope for return of Russian oil & gas exports to Europe - comments to media.

- (US) US TREASURY SEC BESSENT: All aspects of our government are in contact with China; Confirms we do have standardized template we are working off of for trade deals, but not willing to share it - CNBC.

- (US) APR DALLAS Fed Manufacturing activity: -35.8 V -14.1E; New order growth rate: -22 v -8.1 prior; Raw materials prices paid: 48.4 v 37.7 prior.

- (US) Trump: Comments on Canada elections; Says US can no longer subsidize Canada.

- (US) Treasury quarterly financing estimates: To borrow $514B IN Apr-Jun quarter V $480BE AND $123B prior estimate; Jul-Sep to borrow $554B V $570BE.

- (US) Energy Sec Wright: US is refilling the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) currently - CNBC.

- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent: Thinks to be in agreement on the budget with the House and Senate; Hopes to have the tax portion done by July 4th.

- (US) Pres Trump: There is no red line on tariffs, no “certain number” at which he would feel compelled to change course - The Atlantic interview.

Europe

- Apr BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.2%e.

- (UK) Apr CBI Retailing Reported Sales: -8 v -20e.

- (FR) France Q1 Total Jobseekers: 3.408M v 2.927M prior.

- (UR) US and Ukraine said to possibly reach minerals deal this week - FT.

- (DE) Germany CDU leader Merz: Will suggest to US a return to zero tariffs; Do not want to enter an open trade war with the US.

- (PT) Due to the complexity of the phenomenon and the need to rebalance electricity flows internationally, it is estimated that full normalization of the network could take up to a week; Power supply interruptions were the result of a fault in the Spanish electricity grid, related to a rare weather phenomenon, "Induced atmospheric vibration’.

- (ES) Spain PM Sanchez: There's no conclusive information on the causes of the blackout; Spain has reactivated hydro and combined-cycle plants.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 +0.4%, ASX 200 +0.8%, Hang Seng +0.1%; Shanghai Composite -0.1%; Kospi +0.5%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%; DAX +0.3%; FTSE100 +0.2%.

- EUR 113.74-1.1423; JPY 142.01-142.58; AUD 0.6410-0.6450; NZD 0.59347-0.5987.

- Gold -0.9% at $3,317/oz; Crude Oil -1.1% $61.36/bbl; Copper -0.9% at $4.8565/lb.