Light economic calendar for the week ahead

Aaron Hill FP Markets

Stepping into the first full week of November, the economic calendar is a little more on the quieter side this week.

RBA to increase the official cash rate?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the highlight event on Tuesday at 3:30 am GMT. Amid stronger-than-expected CPI inflation and rising house prices, the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures for the November contract imply that the market is about even ahead of this week’s rate decision. Ultimately, the recent upside surprise in Q3 inflation data is likely sufficient to tip the scales more in favour of a rate increase. The Official Cash Rate stands at 4.10% and has been on hold for four consecutive meetings.

What does this mean for the AUD/USD this week?

The AUD/USD found some legs last week, climbing +2.8% and recording its most significant one-week gain since November 2022. Should a rate increase come to fruition, further outperformance in the currency pair is possible.

Fed Chair Powell scheduled to speak

Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak on Thursday, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 7:00 pm GMT. Powell is expected to participate in a panel discussion titled Monetary Challenges in a Global Economy at the Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington DC. Fed officials speaking at the event could shed light on the recent FOMC decision/guidance and, consequently, elevate volatility across the financial markets.

Additional economic data this week

Preliminary Q3 UK growth numbers are a key release on Friday at 7:00 am GMT, followed by preliminary US UoM consumer sentiment data at 3:00 pm GMT.

UK growth numbers are expected to be soft for Q3. Growth declined -0.6% in July on a month-on-month basis, though rebounded to 0.2% in August. Therefore, aside from a significant recovery in economic activity (doubtful) in September, Q3 GDP might drop into negative territory and weigh on sterling (GBP).

US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment data is expected to fall slightly to 63.6 in November, down from 63.8 in October.

G10 FX (5-day change)

Author

Aaron Hill

FP Markets

After completing his Bachelor’s degree in English and Creative Writing in the UK, and subsequently spending a handful of years teaching English as a foreign language teacher around Asia, Aaron was introduced to financial trading,

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD trades with negative bias around 1.1730 amid recovering USD; downside seems limited

The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note, though it remains within striking distance of the highest level since early October, touched last Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1730 region, down less than 0.10% for the day.

GBP/USD holds steady above mid-1.3300s as traders await key data and BoE this week

The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 200-day Simple Moving Average pivotal support. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3360 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

Gold regains traction toward $4,350 in the final full week of 2025

Gold price picks up bids once again toward $4,350 in Asian trading on Monday. The precious metal extends its upside to the highest since October 21 amid the prospect of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve next year. The delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls report for October will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.

Top Crypto Losers: DASH, SPX, PENGU – Privacy and meme coins lose ground

Altcoins, including Dash, SPX6900, and Pudgy Penguins, are leading losses as the broader cryptocurrency market remains cautious ahead of the macroeconomic data releases, such as the US Nonfarm payroll report, CPI data, and the Bank of Japan’s rate-hike decision.

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Aave Price Forecast: AAVE primed for breakout as bullish signals strengthen

Aave (AAVE) price is trading above $204 at the time of writing on Friday and approaching the upper boundary of its descending parallel channel; a breakout from this structure would favor the bulls.