Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
On the radar
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Moody’s completed a periodic review of rating in Poland. The publication does not announce a credit rating, however.
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Producer prices in Slovenia grew 0.5% y/y in February, while average monthly wage increased 4.8% y/y in January.
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Today, Poland will release retail sales growth for February at 10 AM CET.
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There are no other publications scheduled.
Economic developments
Today, we look at the longevity in the region. In 2023, life expectancy at birth in the EU was 81.4 years, marking an increase of 0.8 years from 2022. After having declined in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy has reached higher values than in 2019. In the CEE region we see quite a similar development. Life expectancy at birth in CEE8 was at 78.3 years in 2023, increasing after a significant pandemic drop. The life expectancy in Czechia is the highest within the region (79.9) while the lowest is in Serbia, Romania and Hungary (slightly above 76 years). What is more important for the labor market outcomes, however, is the expected number of years in health. And this indicator (Healthy Life Years (HLY) at Birth) is much lower in the region. All CEE countries have expected number of healthy years close to 60 that is below the EU average. In our view, improving health outcomes could enhance longer labor market participation.
Market developments
Volatility on the FX market has been rather low over the week. The weakening of the CEE currencies against the euro was rather marginal. CEE bond markets have benefited from a drop in yields on the global market. This week, Czechia’s and Hungary’s central banks meeting are key events in the region. We expect stability rates in both countries. Moody’s completed a periodic review of rating in Poland. The publication does not announce a credit rating, however. The report stresses dynamic economy, improved relations with the European Union which has unlocked sizable investment funds, and a strong albeit deteriorating government balance sheet.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
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