July employment: That was Sahm jobs reports

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

Summary

The ongoing deterioration in the jobs market was on full display in the July Employment report. Nonfarm payrolls posted the second smallest gain in 3.5 years with an increase of 114K, average hourly earnings growth eased to 3.6% year-over-year and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% from 4.1% in June. The landfall of Hurricane Beryl at the start of the survey week looks to have had no significant impact on the change in payrolls or the increase in the unemployment rate.

The increase in the unemployment rate now puts it over the 0.5 point Sahm Rule threshold that has historically been associated with the economy being in a recession. The rise in unemployment due to labor force entrants over the past year suggests the current increase may not be the sure-fire sign of a downturn it has been in the past. However, the significant rise in job losers over the past year underscores genuine weakening in labor market conditions that are quickly raising the risk of recession. We expect the Fed to begin reducing its policy rate in September as a result, with the possibility of a 50 bps cut at least on the table after today's report.

Download The Full Economic Indicator

Author

Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.