JGB yields also rise – Trump vs Powell 2.0?

Asia market update: US assets trade generally lower in Asia, UST curve steepens; JGB yields also rise; Trump vs Powell 2.0?; More US trade talks to occur this week.

General trend

- USD/JPY tested below ¥141.

- USD/CHF: Trades at 10-year low.

- EUR/USD: Rises to 3-year high of $1.1475..

- Spot Gold trades at fresh record high.

- Asian equities trade mixed amid holidays.

- Autos and tariffs in focus: Tesla: Reportedly to delay US launch of cheaper Model Y by months – press; GM: Buick models expected to be impacted by tariffs - financial press; Volvo Group: said to be preparing to lay off up to 800 US workers amid tariff policy uncertainty; expected to impact sites in Pennsylvania, Virginia and Maryland [<1% of total workforce] - financial press; Ford: Reportedly halts shipments of SUVs, pick-up trucks and sports cars to China due to retaliatory tariffs - press.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted news, using Asian time zone)

- Tue 22nd KR Mar PPI.

- Wed 23rd NZ Trade Balance, AU/JP/IN Flash Apr PMIs, SG Mar CPI, ID Rate Decision, (Wed eve DE/EU/UK/US Apr Flash PMIs).

- Thu 24th KR Q1 GDP, RBA Bulletin, (Thu eve DE Apr Ifo Business Climate, Thu night US Mar Durable Goods, US Mar Home Sales).

- Fri 25th JP Apr Tokyo CPI, (Fri eve UK Retail Sales).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon 21st Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand.

- Fri 25th Australia, New Zealand.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-ASX 200 closed for holiday.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng closed for holiday.

- Shanghai Composite opens -0.1% at 3,273.

- China MOFCOM: Reiterates firmly opposes any deal harming China's interests, vows to take countermeasures; responds to US coercing others to curb trade through tariffs.

- China Mar YTD Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (CNY-denominated) Y/Y: -10.8% v -20.4% prior.

- USTR: US proposes fees on Chinese ships docking at US ports; Announces 'Targeted and phased action' to reverse Chinese dominance on global shipbuilding; Proposes additional duties of up to 100% on certain cargo handling equipment originating in China [from Apr 17th].

- USCBP confirms $800 de miminis duty-free exemption to be voided for China / Hong Kong exports into the US on May 2nd ET at 00:01 - financial press.

- China to achieve higher grain and soybean output in 2025 - Xinhua.

- CHINA PBOC MONTHLY LOAN PRIME RATE (LPR) SETTING: LEAVES 1-YEAR AND 5-YEAR LPR RATES UNCHANGED; AS EXPECTED.

- China policy tools include RRR cut in Q2 - Chinese press.

- China Cabinet meeting: Vows to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment; To stabilize employment, stock market and foreign trade.

- China's top legislature National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) said to hold meeting on April 27-30th - press.

- China Mar YTD Fiscal Rev -1.1% v -1.6% y/y prior; Spending +4.2% v +3.4% prior.

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.2055 v 7.2069 prior.

- China National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII): Issues guidelines for 'bond valuation business'.

- PBOC-backed Financial News: Foreign holdings of China bonds rose to CNY4.5T as of Apr 15th, up >CNY270B from the end of 2024.

- China MOF auctions 2-month Deposits at 2.05%.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY176.0B in 7-day reverse repos; Net injects CNY133B v injects CNY222.0B prior

- Hong Kong Exchanges [388.HK]: The co's move to examine cutting stock trading settlement time gains 'broad' support - SCMP.

- Huawei: Said to have issued 4 bonds within 1 month; to use the proceeds to support operating funds - US financial press.

- JD.com: Seeking to hire 100K delivery people in the next 3 months - Press.

- Boeing: Follow Up: Boeing 737 MAX jet intended to be used by a China airline landed back at Boeing's US production hub on Sat - Press.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens -0.5% at 34,556.

- Kobe Steel [5406.JP]: Said to cancel 5-year Yen-denominated bond sale due to market conditions - US financial press.

- Japan muni bond sales said to fail to sell; cites interest rate volatility – US financial press [from Apr 18th].

- Tokyo Steel [5423.JP]: To cut May H-beam steel prices, leave hot-rolled coil prices unchanged.

- Japan mulling to relax automobile safety rules for imports as part of US tariff negotiations - Nikkei.

- Japan PM Ishiba: Reiterates sees trade talks with the US as 'important'; Japan-US trade talks could be 'model' for the world; Can't secure Japan's interest by conceding everything; Tariffs and security should be discussed separately.

- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Hayashi: Declines comment on Trump social media post.

- Japan Econ Revitalization Min Akazawa: Raised US-Japan trade agreement in Washington.

- Japan's Econ Revitalization Min and Trade Negotiator Akazawa: Want to reach agreement quickly; Confirms Japan aims to have further negotiations with US this month; Personal consumption could be pushed down by US trade policies.

- According to BOJ sources, the central bank’s main outlook scenario has not changed, Japan might find it difficult to ignore calls from the US for higher rates in Japan – financial press.

- Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement related to outright bond buying operations: Leaves bond buying amounts unchange.

- BOJ Gov Ueda said to travel to Washington DC, US on Apr 22-27th - press.

- JSDA: Japan super-long bonds said to have record foreign inflow in Mar – US financial press; Japanese insurers sold record amount of super-long JGBs in Mar.

- CFTC Japanese Yen Net Long positions reach a record 171.9K contracts for week ended Apr 15th, 2025 [showing a complete flip from the opposite situation last July, just prior to the Yen carry trade unwind] - COT Report.

- Nomura said to cut end of 2025 USD/JPY forecast to ¥137.50 from ¥140 - US financial press.

- Japan Cabinet Office (Govt) Apr Monthly Report: Cuts view on corporate sentiment for first time since March 2022; The economy is recovering moderately, while uncertainty is arising from U.S. trade policies.

- Japan cabinet approval rating rises by 4 pct points to 30% - Asahi poll.

- Japan March Tokyo Condominiums for Sale Y/Y: -9.8% v -2.4% prior.

Korea

- Kospi opens +0.1% at 2,486.

- South Korea Acting President Han: US and South Korea to hold trade talks on Apr 24th [Thurs] at 8 AM ET; tariff negotiations may not be easy - Yonhap.

- South Korea acting Pres Han: Will not fight US tariffs; Cites Korea owing historical debt to the US and is open to dropping non-tariff trade barriers - FT.

- South Korea finds ‘Made in Korea’ breaches intended to bypass US tariffs, primarily related to China; said to have found $20.8M worth of violations related to country of origin from Q1; cites the South Korea Customs agency – financial press.

- Google [GOOGL]: South Korea may consider removing map data ban related to the co., could be related to the trade talks with the US - South Korea press.

- Posco: Expected to join Hyundai US steel project worth $5.8B - US financial press.

- South Korea Apr 1-20 Exports Y/Y: -5.2% v 4.5% prior; Imports Y/Y: -11.8% v -1.4% prior.

- South Korea DP [opposition party] Lee: Announces pledges to boost the capital market; To again seek revision of the Commercial Act.

Other Asia

- Boeing: Malaysia Aviation Group confirms order for up to 60 Boeing 737 MAX Airplanes.

- India said to consider 10% cap for China cos. in electronics jvs - India press.

- Taiwan said to have again extended short-selling curbs – Press.

- Taiwan top prosecutor said to urge more tough laws on China 'incursion' - Taiwan press.

North America

- (US) Follow Up: Trump adviser Hassett said Trump is studying whether to fire Fed Chair Powell – financial press.

- Fed’s Goolsbee (voter) said the hard data coming into Apr was ‘pretty good’ – CBS Interview.

- Fed’s Daly (non-voter for 2025) reiterated may have to hold policy tighter for longer, may still adjust rates down – US financial press.

- (US) ICI: Total money market fund assets decreased by $125.36B to $6.88T for the week ended Wednesday, April 16.

- President Trump: Hopefully Russia and Ukraine will make a deal this week – financial press.

Europe

- US and Iranian officials say meeting in Rome "made progress", will meet again this week

- EU said to explore methane rule change amid US trade talks - financial press

- Deutsche Post [DPW.DE]: DHL unit suspends B2C shipments to the US with value over $800 due to increased customs clearance times

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225, -1.3%, ASX 200 closed , Hang Seng closed; Shanghai Composite +0.4% ; Kospi flat

- Equity S&P500 Futures: -0.8%; Nasdaq100 -0.8%, Dax closed; FTSE100 closed

- EUR 1.1532-1.1350 ; JPY 142.22-140.61 ; AUD 0.6426-0.6369 ;NZD 0.6005-0.5927

- Gold +1.9% at $3,392/oz; Crude Oil -1.7% at $62.96/brl; Copper +0.9% at $4.7453/lb