It's the witching hour

• The dollar gets ambushed overnight...

• China to devalue?

Good Day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! A friendly spiderman neighborhood reminder that there will be no Pfennig tomorrow, as I'll be getting poked at the oncologist's office... With that out of the way, the sleep fairies didn't leave me alone again yesterday; after hitting send on the Pfennig, I walked over to my recliner, sat down, and fell asleep for 4 hours! And that was after I had eaten my breakfast, taken my medicine, which is no light undertaking, and drank two cups of coffee! What gives? Oh well, maybe today will be better! The great Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: On The Border... 

I had a mini panic attack yesterday, when I woke up from the siesta that I took in the morning, I thought, you dumbass, you forgot to send out the Pfennig! And not seeing one in my email box, I was sure I had forgotten to send it out... But after a quick check of other areas, I found that I had indeed sent it... What a dolt!  

I guess my mind is still wandering... With all the medicines I take, it's no wonder, eh?  This one takes care of that, but then this one takes care of side effects of that one!  Geez Louise, I fell like a pharmacy here! Oh, well, que sera, sera, it is what it is... And now, we'll move on to the markets...

The dollar bounced around a bit yesterday, but in the end, it had gained 6 index points on the day in the BBDXY, to close at 1,169... Almost back to the 1,271 it held last Wednesday...  The euro, however, rallied, and that is something when you take that it's the offset currency to the dollar... The euro rallied to over the 1.10 figure yesterday...  And the rest of the currencies followed along, so it was confusing to me, and probably you, as to how the BBDXY gained points, but the actual currencies also gained.... But, then I remembered, the euro is also considered to be a "safe haven currency" along with the Swiss franc... And for that matter some investors believe that the Japanese yen is also a "safe haven currency", which explains why the yen has been rallying VS the dollar for the last couple of weeks... 

The POTUS held strong on his tariffs yesterday, and plans to implement them immediately, which has seen the Global markets lose $10 Trillion in value since he announced the tariffs last week. Gold & Silver were up in the early trading yesterday, but then the short paper traders took hold of the metals once again, and the two metals saw their early gains wiped out... Gold finished the day at $2,985, and Silver must have done something to get their deal with the devil reversed, and it closed the day at $29.89... So, all of you interested in buying Gold or Silver, or both, these two metals are still flashing that Blue Light Special priced drop, so you had better act fast, in my humble opinion... 

I say that because in the past, just about every time the metals see these engineered takedowns, when the dust clears, and the Good Witch, Glinda, tells us that it's all clear and we can come out now, the metals go on to rally to level that are higher than they were before the takedown started... I'm just saying... 

The price of Oil remained in the $61 handle yesterday... And the 10-year saw more selling from the Hedge Fund guys, and the yield rose to 4.29%... As I told you yesterday, the Hedge Fund guys don't want the risk that the longer bonds have right now... 

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar got ambushed again! The BBDXY is down 9 index points this morning... It's the "witching hour"... Midnight has struck, and the tariffs begin today... So, instead of keeping the dollar down while we waited for "the day", the dollar bugs ran the dollar higher, only to have to turn around and sell like funnel cakes at a State Fair! There were some thoughts going through the markets that the POTUS was rethinking the tariffs, but in the end, they're going through, and the markets don't like it!  

Gold is soaring this morning and is back on the rally tracks after being subjected to selling earlier this week... Silver has joined Gold on the rally tracks this morning Safety and no risk is the call of the day, and Gold & Silver fit that bill perfectly! The 10-year Treasury's yield has spiked higher on the fear of risk... The 10-year's yield trades this morning at 4.45%... Holy Cow! As the great Harry Cary used to call out during an incredible play in baseball...  

The price of oil has gotten smashed, and trades this morning with a $56 handle... You'll have to wait a day or two for the gas prices to reflect the drop in the price of Oil, but when they do drop, back up all the gas vehicles you own and filler up! And then take a long drive out to the country, and smell the air, take in the blossoms, and get out and walk around... You'll thank me for suggesting you did that... 

Well, last night, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced their OCR (Official Cash Rate) 25 Basis Points (1/4%) and told the markets that their internal inflation rate was very near meeting the level... But, I'll warn the RBNZ the last time they cut their interest rates, that they are not taking inflation seriously, and realizing that it will come back and when it does, they'll have egg all over the collective faces...  Inflation is sticky... Period! 

I mentioned above that the Global Markets have lost $10 Trillion in value since the tariffs were announced last week. That's a significant number folks! And still no word on any country working out a trade deal where both sides win, so I guess this is a case of the tariffs are what they are, and there's no getting around them... UGH! I truly thought that most of the announced tariffs would be eliminated by new trade Agreements with the countries destined to have tariffs attached to their exports to the U.S.  

Although, there was some news regarding all of this yesterday, with the POTUS signaling he could be open to negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that perhaps almost 70 countries have already approached the US. So, there's still hope, right? That I will be right about new Trade Agreements?  C'mon boys, get it done! 

Speaking of tariffs, Bill Bonner had this to say about them yesterday in his daily letter: "Tariffs are a political move…part demagoguery, part cupidity. They make politicians more powerful as they get to choose who pays what to whom. And they make a few insiders richer as they favor some industries over others. But ultimately, they weaken the economy and make everyone else poorer."

Way to set the record straight on tariffs, Bill!, I've tried to do that, but failed miserably, and really only got around to saying what the tariffs will do to the middle class... 

And then there was this news from China, as reported by Bloomberg.com "The deepening trade war is raising speculation in financial markets that China may resort to aggressively devaluing the yuan against the dollar in a break of their policy of pursuing a stable currency.

Strategists from New York to Hong Kong are game-planning if Beijing’s Friday warning of a “resolute” response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs could include allowing the yuan to weaken sharply, a controversial and non-consensus move which would in theory make Chinese exports cheaper but risk capital flight. President Xi Jinping’s administration already announced a 34% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10."

Chuck again... Now wouldn't that be bee in the President's bonnet. And if China does devalue the renminbi to offset the tariffs costs, wouldn't that give the idea to much of the other countries to do it too?  I would certainly think so!

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, just has the meeting minutes from the last FOMC meeting in March... The markets always go through these minutes with a fine-toothed comb, looking for differences between what was recorded and what was said at the press conference that was held after the last meeting... I don't know why they go through this exercise, because I don't recall a time when there was a difference! 

Tomorrow's Data Cupboard will have the STIPID CPI for March... The experts have forecast that the annual STUPID CPI will be 3.0%... With no change in the monthly number of 2.8%... I'll be sure to check with John Williams at www.shadowstats.com for the real inflation rate and report on that next Monday...

To recap... The dollar has just about recovered all the lost ground it saw wash under the bridge last week after the tariffs were announced... Bill Bonner gives us his take on tariffs, and Chuck talks about inflation being sticky, and how the RBNZ made a mistake cutting their OCR... Will China devalue their currency to offset the tariffs? And Gold & Silver lose their early morning gains yesterday, after the short paper traders got to their desks...

With the price of Oil falling badly, the Petrol Currencies are getting whacked... The spread between the Norwegian krone and the Swedish krona, has really widened, because of Norway's association with the price of Oil... The Mexican peso has moved north of the 20 figure it had held for months, and the Brazilian real has lost ground... Pound sterling doesn't look like it's any worse for the wear, but give it time, the rot on the vine of the price of Oil is coming to get the Petrol Currencies... 

And a quick look at the currency roundup and I see where the Chinese renminbi already looks like it is getting devalued, as its price drops VS the dollar on a daily basis, these days... But if the Chinese are going to devalue the currency, then it will be a one time drop of large number... We had better keep an eye on that happening, sometime soon... 

For What It's Worth... Ther are a ton of articles this morning regarding the Tariffs... 

Here's your snippet: "(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are posting good gains in early U.S. trading Wednesday. Safe-haven demand has resurfaced amid worries about the stability of the U.S. Treasury market, amid a U.S.-China trade war that is unfolding. June gold was last up $79.20 at $3,069.40. May silver prices were last up $0.569 at $30.255.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to sharply lower openings today in New York. The stock indexes sold off on the morning news that China announced 84% retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. A full-blown trade war between the U.S. and China is under way, with neither side willing to blink.

Importantly, there are increasing marketplace concerns about the U.S. Treasury market and its stability. There is talk in the marketplace that big hedge funds are having to unwind huge interest rate swap positions that included being heavily long U.S. Treasuries, due in part to notions the Trump administration would loosen U.S. bank regulations regarding Treasury holdings, which has not occurred.

Gold prices are sharply higher today on safe-haven demand, due in part to the U.S. Treasury market worries."

Chuck again... Well, who told you first that the hedge fund guys were unwinding their Treasury positions? Could it have been me? Well, I'm taking credit for unleashing that news a few days ago... 

Market Prices 4/9/2025: American Style: A$ 6027, kiwi .5679, C$ .7068, euro 1.1088, sterling 1.2819, Swiss $1.1950, European Style: rand 19.5127, krone 10.9876, SEK 10.0021, forint 366.59, zloty 3.6059, koruna 22.7234, RUB 86.16, yen 144.05, sing 1.3467, HKD 7.7536, INR 85.69. China 7.3484, peso 21.04, BRL 6.0898, BBDXY 1,260, Dollar Index 102.01, Oil $56.46, 10-year 4.45%, Silver $30.19, Platinum $918.00, Palladium $904.00, Copper $4.14, and Gold... $3.047.05.

That's it for today... And this week... I'm going to be having a slew of Dr. Appts are coming this month and next, all because of my stint in the Jupiter Medical Center earlier this month. I even have a new doctor that is now on my list of care givers... A pulmonary doctor... HEY! Progress! I climbed the stairs yesterday, without having to stop and rest! My breathing was not as bad, and my heart rate was not as bad, so that's progress! I don't think I could climb them more than once, but I did do it once, and that made me happy! Cardinals got some pitching last night, and defeated one of the best new starting pitchers in the league last night... YAHOO! Day game today, so you know where I'll be! Well, Season 3 of Reacher has been shown on Prime, and I'm hooked on the show! Now I can't wait for Season 4! I've read 99% of the Jack Reacher Books, and these series on Prime, take one of the books and does it in film... Pretty cool... The Cure takes us to the finish line today with their song: Just Like Heaven... I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and a grand rest of the week! And don't forget to Be Good To Yourself!