Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
US inflation advanced to 6.2% in October. That’s the highest level since more than three decades. More worryingly, it looks less and less transitory.
The jump in US inflation, and the yields soured the mood in the equity markets. Nasdaq of course paid the highest price among the three major US indices. But overall, compared to the inflation shock, it’s not a dramatic decline. And activity in US equity futures was positive in Asia, Nasdaq futures are up 0.22% at time of writing, hinting that the moodiness in the market will likely be transitory, unlike inflation…
Goldman advises to buy the USD 5-year 5-year breakevens on a bet that inflation would accelerate, and that the Fed would do nothing dramatic to tame the inflationary pressures, but people actually prefer rushing to Bitcoin, as a new-age inflation hedge. As such, Bitcoin hit a fresh record yesterday, before easing.
I am not saying that Bitcoin is not a good inflation hedge, I am saying that we don’t have enough data in hand that proves that it is. So why are people rushing to Bitcoin?
Despite a limited risk appetite, Rivian made a great debut in Nasdaq. The company sold 156 cars so far and is public since a day only, but it is already worth more than GM and Ford. Why?!
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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