Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
The RBNZ met last night and announced that it would be continuing holding rates at 5.50% for the foreseeable future. Although broadly happy with domestic labour and inflation readings, it still notes the potential for inflation to surprise them, particularly with core inflation remaining sticky around the world.
The NZDUSD pair has a really interesting seasonal pattern for the next two months. It really is a game of two halves. July has been the second strongest month for the NZUSD and August has been the weakest for the NZDUSD over the last 15 years.
From July 13 to July 29, the NZDUSD pair gained 66.67% of the time with an 0.71% average return. However, from July 31 to August 31 the NZDUSD pair has fallen just under 75% of the time with an average fall of 2%. So, what is ahead for the NZDUSD? Will these twin seasonal patterns play out this year?
Major Trade Risks: Previous seasonal patterns do not play out every year, and don’t forget that the US rate path can also strongly impact the NZDUSD.
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