USDJPY jumped through 118.00 on the back of soft Japanese economic indicators and falling oil prices that support the case for even more monetary easing from the Bank of Japan in the second half of 2015. The market already had its doubts before the release of today’s data about the ability of the BoJ’s fresh stimulus to boost inflation to the bank’s 2% target, and October’s inflation and other economic figures have likely turned even more optimists into cynics. Admittedly, today’s figures focus on a period prior to the BoJ’s new bout of easing, but they still highlight the lack of activity at the ground level in Japan and the challenges faced by Kuroda and his cohorts in reaching their price target.
Overall consumer prices rose 2.9% y/y, missing an expected rise of 3.0% y/y. More importantly, core CPI growth fell to 2.9% y/y from 3.0% y/y previously. This is the third straight month of declines which puts real core inflation around 0.9% (the BoJ estimates that the increase in the VAT in April adds around 2% to core CPI after April).
Inflation
Source: FOREX.com, Bloomberg
Falling oil prices and more soft economic data help to weaken the yen
Falling oil prices may further complicate the BoJ’s ability to stoke inflation. Japan relies heavily on imported energy, thus the softening price of black gold is expected to weigh heavily on this aspect of tradables inflation.
Furthermore, other economic data out today reinforce the soft inflation figures and cast even more doubt about the health of domestic demand in the near-term. Retail sales unexpectedly dropped 1.4% m/m in October (expected -0.5% m/m). The only mildly bit of encouraging economic data was a surprise 0.2% m/m jump in industrial production last month.
USDJPY
USDJPY is back above 118.00 and looking strong. It’s running into some mild resistance around 118.30 but it wouldn’t take much to push through this level. The USD is on the front foot today and when combined with the recent weakness in oil prices and the market’s attempts to price in the possibility of further easing from the BoJ the path of least resistance for USDJPY appears to be higher, at least for the moment. A bullish crossover in 4-hr MACD supports this notion.
Source: FOREX.com
Source: FOREX.com, Bloomberg
Falling oil prices and more soft economic data help to weaken the yen
Falling oil prices may further complicate the BoJ’s ability to stoke inflation. Japan relies heavily on imported energy, thus the softening price of black gold is expected to weigh heavily on this aspect of tradables inflation.
Furthermore, other economic data out today reinforce the soft inflation figures and cast even more doubt about the health of domestic demand in the near-term. Retail sales unexpectedly dropped 1.4% m/m in October (expected -0.5% m/m). The only mildly bit of encouraging economic data was a surprise 0.2% m/m jump in industrial production last month.
USDJPY
USDJPY is back above 118.00 and looking strong. It’s running into some mild resistance around 118.30 but it wouldn’t take much to push through this level. The USD is on the front foot today and when combined with the recent weakness in oil prices and the market’s attempts to price in the possibility of further easing from the BoJ the path of least resistance for USDJPY appears to be higher, at least for the moment. A bullish crossover in 4-hr MACD supports this notion.
Source: FOREX.com
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD: The hunt for the 0.7000 hurdle
AUD/USD quickly left behind Wednesday’s strong pullback and rose markedly past the 0.6900 barrier on Thursday, boosted by news of fresh stimulus in China as well as renewed weakness in the US Dollar.
EUR/USD refocuses its attention to 1.1200 and above
Rising appetite for the risk-associated assets, the offered stance in the Greenback and Chinese stimulus all contributed to the resurgence of the upside momentum in EUR/USD, which managed to retest the 1.1190 zone on Thursday.
Gold holding at higher ground at around $2,670
Gold breaks to new high of $2,673 on Thursday. Falling interest rates globally, intensifying geopolitical conflicts and heightened Fed easing bets are the main factors.
Bitcoin displays bullish signals amid supportive macroeconomic developments and growing institutional demand
Bitcoin (BTC) trades slightly up, around $64,000 on Thursday, following a rejection from the upper consolidation level of $64,700 the previous day. BTC’s price has been consolidating between $62,000 and $64,700 for the past week.
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
Five best Forex brokers in 2024
VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals.