Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
On the radar
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The ECB holds a rate setting meeting today.
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At 10 AM CET, Poland will release series of data: industrial output growth in June, producer prices as well as June’s employment and nominal wage growth.
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There are no other releases scheduled for today.
Economic developments
According to the latest update of the World Economic Outlook from July, global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. However, varied momentum in activity at the turn of the year has somewhat narrowed the output divergence across economies. According to the IMF, the cyclical factors wane and activity becomes better aligned with its potential. There are no major changes in the growth forecasts of Eurozone (0.9% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025) as well as Emerging and Developing Europe (most of CEE countries would fall into this category). As for inflation development, the IMF sees upside risks to inflation leading to higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. We also stick to our growth story in the region we have been telling lately about economic recovery supported mainly by private consumption.
Market developments
The EURCZK and EURHUF have moved down since the beginning of the week, while the EURPLN on the contrary. Ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, the long end of the curves moved down across the region. We expect the ECB Governing Council to signal a wait-and-see attitude and leave interest rates unchanged. We do not expect the next interest rate cut of 25bp until September, when new data sets on price trends and projections on the development of the economy and inflation are available. There are no other news on local markets.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
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