Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
The 2024 US election delivered a decisive victory for Donald Trump, with Republicans positioned to gain control of both houses of Congress.
US equities gained, led by banks, energy stocks and small caps, Bitcoin and US Dollar strengthened, gold and Swiss franc fell, along with a decline in metals and international equities, and major & EM currencies.
While the US election clarity is cheered by some pockets of the market, there are rising uncertainties regarding how the anticipated pro-US growth policies and Trumpflation will resonate in the rest of the world, and at the Fed.
In this new context (as says Emmanuel Macron), the Bank of England (BoE) has the hard task to deliver its first policy decision post-Trump. The BoE is expected to cut rates by 25bp today. The markets price in two more rate cuts by the end of next year, and gives a 35% chance for a third one. But the UK budget and the Trump win could complicate the plans.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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