- The US Inflation report and the Core CPI are critical for the Fed and have a considerable impact on the US Dollar.
- The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
- The EURUSD moved, on average, 34 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 50 pips in the following 4 hours
Selling EUR/USD Scenario
-
Tradable Negative Trigger: +1.581 deviation (2.4183%) [BUY Pair]
-
Key Support Level: 1.1590
This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 1.581 or higher(2.4183 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 26 pips in the first 15 minutes and 78 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.1690 provided support to the pair on July 9th. The next level to watch is the July 4th trough of 1.1630. 1.1590 was the low point on July 2nd, and the 1.1508 is the 2018 low.
Buying EUR/USD Scenario
-
Tradable Positive Trigger: -1.3363 deviation (2.2%) [BUY Pair]
-
Key Resistance Level: 1.1850
If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.3363 or less(2.2 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 22 pips in the first 15 minutes and 65 pips in the following 4 hours
1.1720 capped the pair in early July and beforehand in late June. 1.1795 was the high point on July 9th. Further above, 1.1850 was the swing high on June 14th.
EUR/USD Levels on the Chart
More data
The Federal Reserve has two mandates: employment and inflation. While jobs are aplenty, inflation is not rising fast enough. However, in recent months, core prices finally picked up, albeit in a gradual manner. Any small change may trigger a significant reaction.
In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 34 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 50 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had no surprise.
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD struggles near one-month low despite subdued USD demand
![AUD/USD struggles near one-month low despite subdued USD demand](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/AUDUSD/macro-of-aussie-100-note-8615104_XtraSmall.jpg)
AUD/USD consolidates its recent heavy losses and seems vulnerable to sliding further amid worries about the slowing Chinese economy. Unexpected interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China on Monday might also continue to undermine the China-proxy Aussie. Meanwhile, dovish Fed expectations keep the USD bulls on the defensive.
EUR/USD trapped below 1.09 as quiet Monday markets churn
![EUR/USD trapped below 1.09 as quiet Monday markets churn](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/EURUSD/MoneyEURUSD_3_XtraSmall.jpg)
EUR/USD churned on Monday just below 1.0900 as the new trading week kicks things off on a notably light note. Meaningful data remains limited for the first half of the trading week, leaving Fiber traders to shuffle in place as investors await Wednesday’s key PMI figures for both the EU and the US.
Gold price remains on the defensive below $2,400 mark, over one-week low
![Gold price remains on the defensive below $2,400 mark, over one-week low](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Metals/Gold/stacks-of-gold-bars-19033163_XtraSmall.jpg)
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and languishes near a one-and-half-week low touched the previous day. Biden’s withdrawal from the US Presidential race and unexpected interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China boosted the global risk sentiment on Monday.
SEC gives final approval for Ethereum ETFs to begin trading
![SEC gives final approval for Ethereum ETFs to begin trading](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Digital%20Currencies/Ethereum/ethereum_4_XtraSmall.jpg)
The Securities and Exchange Commission approved the S-1 registration statements of spot Ethereum ETF issuers on Monday, making it the second digital asset ETF to go live in the US, according to the latest filings on its website.
Commodity FX gets no help from higher US equities
![Commodity FX gets no help from higher US equities](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Energy/Gas/soaring-gas-prices-6660220_XtraSmall.jpg)
Markets were all over the place on Monday. US equities put in a decent recovery, though this did nothing to help beaten down commodity FX, with the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar all getting hammered.