How to trade the US Consumer Sentiment data with EUR/USD

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment is a leading indicator of retail sales and the wider economy.
The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.30 deviation [SELL Pair]
Key Support Level: $1.2300

If it comes out at higher than expected with a deviation of +0.30 or higher, the pair may go down reaching a range of 21 pips in the first 15 minutes and 68 pips in the following 4 hours

Support awaits at the round level of $1.2300, the low point the pair reached on April 12th. Further below, $1.2240 was a swing low in March and $1.2210 was the trough in early April.

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.26 deviation [BUY Pair]
Key Resistance Level: $1.2395

it comes out lower than expected at a deviation of -0.26 or less, the EUR/USD may up reaching a range of 19 pips in the first 15 minutes and 64 pips in the following 4 hours

$1.2395 was the high point recorded on April 11th. Further above, we find the late-March peak of $1.2480, followed by the 3-year high at $1.2555.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

In the last five releases, the EUR/USD moved, on average, 16 pips in the 15 minutes after the release and 50 pips in the 4 hours after the release.

The previous release had a negative surprise of 0.25 in terms of deviation and the EUR/USD reached a 12 pip range in the first 16 minutes after the release and 43 pips in the next 4 hours.

The preliminary version of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment indicator provides guidance about retail sales in the current month. In addition, the inflation expectations measures there serve as another measure of price development for the Fed.

See: US Michigan Consumer Sentiment´s preview and its relation with EUR/USD

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

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