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Michael Berman, PhD Signal2Noise (S2N) News

S2N spotlight

I wanted to share a few performance overviews of various Hedge Fund and Managed Futures (CTA) Indexes from the excellent Nilsson Hedge website.

Here is the classic Long/Short Equity Hedge Fund Index performance.

The CTA / Managed Futures Industry is having a tougher time, with April hurting a lot.

The main reason why the CTA industry is hurting so much is because of momentum traders getting savaged in April.

S2N observations

Does anyone actually know what Palantir does for a living? I think it was the best or one of the best-performing stocks of 2024 and 2025. A 10% drop followed by 7% up is just an ordinary day at this spook company.

I know there has been a lot of hoopla with the US and UK administrations slapping each other on the back over the newly inked trade deal. By the way, Donald Trump has a handwriting even more flamboyant than his personality. It is quite beautiful. I am talking about the handwriting.

In case you never knew, the UK is a surplus trade partner for the US. Yes, they are the good guys if you follow the Trump logic of trading partners ripping off the US, but the 10% tariff was still slapped on. Great deal.

The IMF just released its latest trade war impact research. It turns out the country that will be hardest hit is the US. Talk about an own goal.

Dow Theory tops are called when one of the indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial or the Dow Jones Transports, doesn’t confirm a new high. I programmed the analysis with a non-confirmation signal last year.

I was thinking about the transports the other day as I have been sharing some real-time economic data points on shipping traffic. What better way to keep an eye on whether the economy is slowing down than by keeping an eye on the transport index. The index covers trucking, shipping, and all things transport-related. I will refer to this chart regularly as we take the trade war temperature.

S2N screener alert

Not sure what happened with Ethereum yesterday, but it got more of a pump than I did at the gym. 20% up is quite a flex.

The Hong Kong Dollar peg ain’t looking so well pegged in.

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Author

Michael Berman, PhD

Signal2Noise (S2N) News

Michael has decades of experience as a professional trader, hedge fund manager and incubator of emerging traders.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.