|

Housing shortage, a major challenge for the Labour Party

The newly elected Labour Party has set a target of 1,500,000 extra homes in five years, or 300,000 a year, in an attempt to reduce the shortage in England. This is not a new figure; it was already the one put forward in the Conservative Party manifesto when Boris Johnson was elected in 2019.

Dwelling and population growth in England

Chart

By creating on average 250,000 homes a year between 2019 and 2023,[1] the target was far from having been achieved by the Tories, who admittedly came up against a succession of shocks (health crisis, soaring costs of materials and interest rates, labour shortages exacerbated by Brexit). Among the measures targeted by the Labour Party, the most important is arguably that aimed at reforming the rules around housing planning in the country (National Planning Policy Framework), which, as well as reintroducing quotas, aims to simplify and speed up the process of obtaining planning permission.

"Get Britain building again" would mean a change of gear never seen before. With the exception of the Covid-19 crisis in 2020, when population growth fell sharply as a result of restrictions on mobility to the UK, the creation of new housing in England has failed for almost 25 years to keep pace with population growth. While construction activity will benefit from the forthcoming fall in interest rates and the normalisation of production costs, the lack of available workers will limit these effects.

Download The Full Eco Flash

Author

BNP Paribas Team

BNP Paribas Team

BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.

More from BNP Paribas Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1900 as US NFP looms

EUR/USD holds its upbeat momentum above 1.1900 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, helped by a broadly weaker US Dollar. Markets could turn cautious later in the day as the delayed US employment report for January will takes center stage. 

GBP/USD remains above nine-day EMA near 1.3650

GBP/USD recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.3680 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a sustained bullish bias, as the pair trades within an ascending channel pattern.

Gold sticks to gains near $5,050 as focus shifts to US NFP

Gold holds moderate gains near the $5,050 level in the European session on Wednesday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest losses amid dovish US Federal Reserve-inspired US Dollar weakness. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal ahead of the critical US NFP release. 

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show modest job gains in January

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December.

S&P 500 at 7,000 is a valuation test, not a liquidity problem

The rebound from last week’s drawdown never quite shook the sense that it was being supported by borrowed conviction. The S&P 500 once again tested near the 7,000 level (6,986 as the high watermark) and failed, despite a macro backdrop that would normally be interpreted as supportive of risk.

BNB prolonged correction signals deeper bearish momentum
BNB (BNB), formerly known as Binance Coin, is trading below $618 on Wednesday, marking the sixth consecutive day of correction since the weekend. The bearish price action is further supported by rising short bets alongside negative funding rates in the derivatives market.