On the radar
-
July’s Retail Sales in Romania arrived at 7.4% y/y in calendar-adjusted terms.
-
Today, we will see retail sales also in Slovakia, Czechia and Hungary.
-
Slovakia will also publish GDP structure for Q2.
-
In the afternoon Governor Glapinski holds a press conference following the rate decision.
Economic developments
Today, we will be discussing the region's willingness to save. The Economic Sentiment Indicator survey asks consumers how they see their savings in the next 12 months. Based on the answers received, we can conclude that the willingness to save in the region remains at its highest level since 2015. The accumulation of savings during the pandemic was used to buffer the impact of inflation shocks on households' budgets. Since then, the accumulation of savings is taking place again. With inflation falling and wages growing dynamically, disposable income has increased, resulting in solid private consumption growth. However, not all income is spent, and the rebuilding of savings seems to be taking place.
Market movements
It was unsurprising that Poland maintained its key rate at 5.75%. However, there is limited clarity on the timing of the first rate cut, with elevated inflation being driven by wages and energy prices. We anticipate that yesterday’s press release may have mentioned the new 2025 budget, which is expansionary and thus pro-inflationary. The communique only indirectly addresses this by mentioning that "inflation will also be influenced by fiscal and regulatory policies, economic recovery pace, and labor market conditions". Governor Glapinski's press conference may provide more insight into the timing of monetary easing in the course of 2025. In Hungary, Governor Virag stated that the country needs to be sure that inflation is anchored at around 3% in a stable manner before deciding on further monetary easing. On the FX market, the EURPLN moved down to 4.27, while the Czech koruna and the Hungarian forint have been marginally weaker against the euro this week. Long-term yields keep moving down, and Czechia successfully placed the 2043 government papers, selling CZK 2.4 billion amid solid demand.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
![EUR/USD retakes 1.1100 ahead of key US data](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/EURUSD/dollar-and-euro-bills-58059534_XtraSmall.jpg)
EUR/USD retakes 1.1100 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD has regained upside traction to trade near 1.1100 in the European session on Thursday. The pair capitalizes on the extended US Dollar even as risk sentiment remains sour heading into the key US labor market data.
![GBP/USD advances toward 1.3200, US data eyed](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/GBPUSD/new-style-twenty-pound-notes-3079195_XtraSmall.jpg)
GBP/USD advances toward 1.3200, US data eyed
GBP/USD extends gains toward 1.3200 in European trading on Thursday, as the US Dollar sees fresh selling. The further upside, however, could be capped as traders stay cautious ahead of the top-tier US jobs data.
![Gold recovers back above $2,500 after US job’s data](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Metals/Gold/stack-of-golden-bars-in-the-bank-vault-60756080_XtraSmall.jpg)
Gold recovers back above $2,500 after US job’s data
Gold trades back above $2,500 on Thursday after rebounding from the $2,471 previous day’s lows, following the release of lower-than-expected job openings data in July from the US, which stoked fresh hard-landing fears.
![ADP Employment Change Preview: US private sector expected to add 145K new jobs in August](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/EconomicIndicator/Employment/employment-51256484_XtraSmall.jpg)
ADP Employment Change Preview: US private sector expected to add 145K new jobs in August
ADP Employment Change is forecast to arrive at 145,000 in August. Labor market conditions could influence the Fed’s policy outlook. The US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals after posting large losses in August.
![Jupiter price is poised for a rally after retesting major support area](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Cryptocurrencies/Jupiter/Jupiter-min_XtraSmall.png)
Jupiter price is poised for a rally after retesting major support area
Jupiter rebounded 4.4% after testing a key support area on Wednesday. Despite a slight 1.4% dip on Thursday, a sustained reversal appears likely if the support zone continues to hold.
![Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/IT/Testing/Review/FXSBadgeCertifiedBackg_XtraSmall.png)
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.