Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
On the radar
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Industrial output declined in Romania by -3.2% y/y in February.
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Inflation rate in Slovakia in March reached 4% y/y.
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At 10 and 11 AM CET, Poland and Croatia will publish final inflation numbers in March.
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There are no other releases scheduled.
Economic developments
Last week, Eurostat released data on gross minimum wages across the European Union as of January 2025. Luxembourg reports the highest minimum wage at €2638, while the minimum wages in the CEE region are less than half of this amount. Slovenia leads with a minimum wage of €1278, followed by Poland at €1091. All other countries in the region have minimum wages set below €1000. Croatia is close to this threshold at €970, whereas Czechia (€826), Slovakia (€816), and Romania (€814) have similar minimum wage levels despite differing median salaries. An interesting perspective emerges when adjusting minimum wages by the purchasing power standard (PPS). Considering price levels, Poland has the highest adjusted minimum wage at PPS 1523, followed by Slovenia at PPS 1427 and Romania at PPS 1340. Conversely, the lowest paid employees in Slovakia and Czechia earn PPS 973 and PPS 935, respectively. However, the comparison of gross minimum wages may be misleading due to local differences in social contributions, personal income tax, and tax allowances.
Market developments
While the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty are slightly stronger this week against the euro while the Hungarian forint keeps weakening. EURHUF is marginally above 410. The long-term yields have declined at the beginning of the week and ahead of the ECB meeting scheduled for April 17. The drama regarding tariffs continues as according to the latest news Trump considers further exemptions (after electronics) from tariffs this time on imported cars and parts. That would be important change for the CEE region and Slovakia in particular. Poland’s central banker Janczyk admitted that the chances for monetary easing at the upcoming meeting are very high. However, he sees the interest rate at 3.5% in 2026 as difficult to achieve. Slovak President Pellegrini said he would support scrapping transaction tax that was passed as part of consolidation package in order to lower budget deficit in 2025 and years ahead.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
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