The Dollar is still king, but there are some rumblings

Good Day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Please forgive me for not writing to you on Monday this week... I came down with a cold on the last day of my trip, and it hit me like a ton of bricks. I slept all day on Monday, and lot of yesterday, but when I awoke, I felt much better, and proclaimed myself ready to travel again yesterday.. Off to my second home in S. Florida, for my annual summer vacation, but this time, I'll be writing during the vacation because I already took off for my Ireland sojourn. REO Speedwagon greets me this morning with their song: Golden Country...

Well, this won't take too long this morning, because I'm lost as to what has really gone on in the last two weeks, since I was traveling around Ireland. So, grab your cup of coffee, and let's go through this together, eh? 

The dollar continues to be the king of the hill... And everyone on the face of the earth is forecasting a rate cut by the Fed Heads in Sept. That makes the stock jockeys happy... And the bond boys happy... But it shouldn't make the dollar bugs happy, and so far it hasn't had any affect on the dollar, as it trades this morning the dollar keeps on kicking tail and taking names later. 

Gold sure is happy that the thoughts have turned to a rate cut in Sept... Gold reached an all-time high on Tuesday this week, and every day here on out it when it rallies it will reach new all-time highs... We are in uncharted areas here, folks... Silver is still below it's recent high, but is working feverently to catch up... I'm waiting for the new "Silver guru" to take the departed Ted Butler's place... Ted had followers called "Ted's Raptors"... Silver needs a voice behind it to at least scare the short paper traders... 

The euro is trading with a 1.09 handle this morning, and it has been on a run of sorts vs the dollar. The old adage that when "Chucks away the currencies rally" held true this time too, as the euro was trading with a 1.07 handle the last day that I wrote, and two weeks later, it's trading with a 1.09 handle... I hear you snickering Mick K... 

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar slipped a little as the rate cut talks probably filtered over to the overseas markets. The BBDXY is trading this morning with a 1,248 handle, and Gold is up $6 to start the day. I'm getting that spider sense again that leads me to believe that the dollar is in trouble right now, and going forward, without interference by the PPT, the dollar could be in for a long period of trouble...  Nothing concrete right now, just my spider sense tingling, once again... 

Yesterday saw the short Gold paper traders hit the Comex with a bang... The day after Gold hit an all-time high, the short paper traders saw to it that Gold didn't continue to go upward... They whacked and hacked at Gold until it gave in and lost $10 on the day to close at $2,457... And Silver saw the same type of short paper whacking and lost 94-cents to close at $30.24... I came back to this after talking about the overnight markets because, this really irks me to no end... The short paper traders continue to get under my skin, and I don't like that at all... In fact, at one point last year, I made the statement that I wasn't going to let them get to to me any longer... But that lasted as long as a NY Minute, didn't it?  

The European Central Bank (ECB ) is meeting while my fat fingers type away this morning.... The thought here is that the ECB will keep rates unchanged at this meeting but come out and say that they are looking ahead to cut rates, but not giving any timeline or guidance... That's pretty lame on their part I would say, but, at least they are listening to me and not cutting rates just yet...  

In China, the Communist Party met and decided to modernize the country's industrial complex, expand domestic demand, curb debt and property sector risks, as well as implement financial and fiscal reforms They didn't give any thoughts on how they would do these things, but I'm sure they have them tucked away somewhere.... 

The Chinese economy has slipped in recent weeks after soaring in the weeks after their re-opening... This hiccup has led to President Xi to hold special meeting on the economy... Look, I'm of the opinion that the Chinese, which have been doing this economic thing much longer than any other country, will find a way to get the economy back on the rally tracks... I'm just saying...

The U.S. Cupboard yesterday had the June Retail Sales, and I wasn't able to tell you about what the Butler Household Index (BHI) told us... But it would have told you that Retail Sales would be disappointing... And that's what they were, as they printed at 0% gain in June... Today's Data Cupboard has the June prints of Industrial Capacity and Capital Utilization, of which I suspect they will be disappointing too... I have to tell you that if the economic data keeps printing these disappointing numbers, the Fed Heads will be lead to believe that they need to cut interest rates... 

That, in my humble country boy opinion, will be a BIG Mistake... But then hasn't the Fed's M.O. Been nothing but mistakes through the years? Now, Chuck that wasn't very kind to the Fed Heads, and it what cost you you job at EverBank when the TIAA took them over, and TIAA's CEO was a former Fed Governor... Yeah, but that was then, and this is now! I can say what I want to and not worry about being called on the carpet... 

To recap... Today's letter is a brief update that's days late, since Chuck was down with a bad cold a and slept through the days... Today Chuck heads south to his winter home in S. Florida, and will be writing from there the next 3 weeks... The dollar is still the king of the hill, but the euro is showing signs of rebounding... Gold hit an all time high on Tuesday.. Here we go! 

Market prices 7/17/2024: American Style: A$.6733, kiwi .6070, C$ .7309, euro 1.09.34, Sterling 1.2984, Swiss $1.0934, European Style: rand 18.2026, krone 10.7610, SEK 10.5482, forint 356.48, zloty 3.9264, koruna 23.1089, RUB 88.08, yen 156.44, sing 1.3409, HKD 7.8089, INR 83.65, China 7.2577, peso 17.71, BRL 5.5156, BBDXY 1,248.58, Dollar Index 103.85, Oil $82.67, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $30.43, Platinum $999.00, Palladium $952.00, Copper $4.31, and Gold... $2,567.72

For What It's Worth... Well, as I stated above the Fed Heads historically have errored in their moves over and over again, and this time I think it will be disastrous for us... 

Here's your snippet: " Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to cut interest rates.

Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington D.C., Powell referenced the idea that central bank policy works with “long and variable lags” to explain why the Fed wouldn’t wait for its target to be hit.

“The implication of that is that if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long, because the tightening that you’re doing, or the level of tightness that you have, is still having effects which will probably drive inflation below 2%,” Powell said.

Instead, the Fed is looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to the 2% level, Powell said.

“What increases that confidence in that is more good inflation data, and lately here we have been getting some of that,” he said.

Powell also said he thinks a “hard landing” for the U.S. economy was not “a likely scenario.”

Monday was Powell’s first public speaking appearance since the consumer price index report for June showed cooling inflation, with prices actually falling month over month."

Chuck again... Don't you just love it when a Fed Head like Powell, uses the latest inflation report that showed a little trace of cooling to come out and pronounce that inflation is going away? What a Dolt! I'll say not more!

OH, and this just in... The ECB did in fact leave rates unchanged this morning, more on this next week! 

That's it for today... Well Baseball's All-Star Game was played Tuesday night... This game used to be played by players that really wanted to win the game for their league... These days, it's players that go out and try not to get hurt, and don't really care about who wins the game... I watched some of the game before heading to bed, for my early wake up call to write this morning before heading out... I apologize again about not writing to you earlier this week... But I was down for the count, believe me on that... Other than that, The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: Never Comes The Day... I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself?