|

Here’s what a Trump victory could mean for Gold prices [Video]

It's a fact, the high-stakes U.S Presidential Election is capturing the world's attention as one of the biggest and most lucrative macro trading opportunities of this year, if not this decade. 

With the U.S Presidential Election now just over a week away, most major polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a very close race for the popular vote. 

However Wall Street seems increasingly convinced that Donald Trump is going to win – And the prospect of that outcome is whipping up an explosive money-making storm as traders begin pricing in the potential return of the so-called “Trump Trade.” 

According to analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence – the Trump Trade refers to a set of highly profitable money-making trends and market behaviours that emerged during Donald Trump’s previous presidency – as savvy traders positioned themselves to benefit from his “Make America Great Again” policies and economic agenda. 

Historically, U.S Elections are known to be extraordinary macroeconomic events that are guaranteed to move the Gold market significantly – largely due to political uncertainty and the potential for shifting economic policies. 

And this time around should be no different! 

In the weeks leading up to the 2016 U.S Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton – Gold prices surged furiously to score multiple back-to-back record highs. 

And guess what? And that's exactly what we're seeing play out again right now.

At the time of writing on Tuesday, Gold prices skyrocketed to a new all-time record high of $2,771 an ounce, surpassing the precious metals previous all-time high of $2,758 an ounce reached only a week earlier – extending its gains by an impressive 54%, from this time 12-months ago. 

The big question now is: What Will A Trump Victory Mean For Gold Prices Ahead?

In a note to clients, analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence wrote “that a Trump victory could ignite a new Supercycle in Gold prices off the back of a multitude of economic factors, with the most monumental being his stance on tariffs”. 

It's no secret that Donald Trump has already signalled a return to his “America First” rhetoric, with a renewed focus on imposing tariffs. In particular, Trump has floated the idea of a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods – a move, which could ultimately reignite global inflation and increase demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. 

Interestingly, during Trump’s previous presidency Gold prices experienced exponential growth. When Trump took office in January 2017, Gold was trading near $1,209 an ounce. By the end of his term in January 2021, Gold was hovering near a high of $1,957 an ounce. 

Regardless of whoever wins the U.S Presidential Election on November 5 – the fact, that both candidates are proposing inflationary policies, guarantees to unleash one of the most bullish backdrops for Gold prices ahead, the world has ever seen!

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

Author

Phil Carr

Phil Carr

The Gold & Silver Club

Phil is the co-founder and Head of Trading at The Gold & Silver Club, an international Commodities Trading Firm specializing in Metals, Energies and Soft Commodities.

More from Phil Carr
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD stays weak near 1.1850 after dismal German ZEW data

EUR/USD remains in the red near 1.1850 in the European session on Tuesday. A broad US Dollar bullish consolidation combined with a softer risk tone keep the pair undermined alongside downbeat German ZEW sentiment readings for February. 

GBP/USD holds losees near 1.3600 after weak UK jobs report

GBP/USD is holding moderate losses near the 1.3600 level in Tuesday's European trading. The United Kingdom employment data suggested worsening labor market conditions, bolstering bets for a BoE interest rate cut next month. This narrative keeps the Pound Sterling under bearish pressure. 

Gold pares intraday losses; keeps the red above $4,900 amid receding safe-haven demand

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day and dives to over a one-week low, around the $4,858 area, heading into the European session on Tuesday. 

Canada CPI expected to show sticky inflation in January, still above BoC’s target

Economists see the headline CPI rising by 2.4% in a year to January, still above the BoC’s target and matching December’s increase. On a monthly basis, prices are expected to rise by 0.1%.

The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone

It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.

Stellar mixed sentiment caps recovery

Stellar price remains under pressure, trading at $0.170 on Tuesday after failing to close above the key resistance on Sunday. The derivatives metric supports the bearish sentiment, with XLM’s short bets rising among traders and funding rates turning negative.