|

Greenback goes up in smoke as hassett lights the fuse

The dollar didn’t just slip in a sleepy, illiquid Asian session — it detonated. With half the globe still on Easter break and liquidity thinner than rice paper, all it took was one spark — and the entire FX board caught fire. That spark? NEC Director Kevin Hassett throwing Powell back under the bus, confirming that Trump’s still exploring how to remove the Fed Chair, while accusing the central bank of playing partisan politics. Translation for markets? The Fed’s independence just got yanked back into the headlines — and traders wasted no time taking the other side.

The move was swift and brutal. Hedge funds were flooding the Asia efx tape, selling the dollar against anything that wasn’t nailed down. EURUSD exploded to 3-year highs — never mind the fact that Europe’s still economically underwater. The yen? Ripped through 141, posting an 11% rally from the January lows. Meanwhile, gold didn’t just wake up — it went thermonuclear, blowing past $3,370 like last week’s dip was a bad dream.

This wasn’t data-driven — it was pure headline reflex, triggered by the smell of political instability bleeding into monetary credibility. Powell may be staying quiet, but the market isn’t. If the Fed won’t cut, Trump’s strategy is clear: trash the markets until financial conditions ease anyway. That’s not forward guidance — that’s a street brawl between the White House and the Eccles Building.

And here’s where things get interesting: Bitcoin joined the rebellion. Usually, a collapsing dollar signals chaos for crypto — risk-off, carry unwinds, beta selloffs. But this time? BTC surged over $2,000, punching through $87K with its biggest one-day move since "Liberation Day." The BTC-DXY correlation? Snapped like a dry twig. This wasn’t just a breakout — it was a rotation. Gold is screaming policy protest, and now Bitcoin is tagging in as the next anti-fiat weapon.

Because let’s be real — if the dollar keeps disintegrating, the BOJ and ECB won’t just sit there holding the bag. A runaway yen or euro would be economic suicide, and everyone knows it. The moment they retaliate — likely with rate cuts and the resurrection of QE — the next global liquidity flood begins.

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

More from Stephen Innes
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD trades with negative bias around 1.1730 amid recovering USD; downside seems limited

The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note, though it remains within striking distance of the highest level since early October, touched last Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1730 region, down less than 0.10% for the day.

GBP/USD holds steady above mid-1.3300s as traders await key data and BoE this week

The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 200-day Simple Moving Average pivotal support. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3360 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

Gold retains bullish bias ahead of this week’s key US macro releases

Gold attracts buyers for the fifth straight day and climbs to the $4,330 region during the Asian session on Monday. The commodity remains well within striking distance of its highest level since October 21, touched on Friday, and seems poised to appreciate further amid a supportive fundamental backdrop. 

Solana consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout. On the institutional side, demand for spot Solana Exchange-Traded Funds remained firm, pushing total assets under management to nearly $1 billion since launch. 

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Aave Price Forecast: AAVE primed for breakout as bullish signals strengthen

Aave (AAVE) price is trading above $204 at the time of writing on Friday and approaching the upper boundary of its descending parallel channel; a breakout from this structure would favor the bulls.