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Greenback boosted by hawkish Fed comments, markets placing greater emphasis on opinion polls

Communications from FOMC officials have remained hawkish in the past few days, reinforcing the view that US rate cuts would take place at only a rather gradual pace.

Fed members Schmid, Logan and Kashkari have all talked up the strength of the US labour market in recent days, while expressing a preference for a more gradual approach to future policy easing.

This has been a clear positive for the greenback, which continued to trade higher against almost every currency globally since the start of the month. The next few days will see a handful of economic data releases in the US, including home sales (Wednesday), business activity PMI figures (Thursday) and durable goods orders (Friday).

The main focus remains on the election, however, with markets placing an increasingly heavy emphasis on the latest opinion polls, particularly out of the swing states. According to 270towin, Trump is now ahead in 5 of the 7 key battleground states, albeit his advantage stands at less than half a percent in three.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

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