Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
European and US markets nosedived yesterday on the back of ‘good news is bad news’ and the futures hint at a bearish start to Thursday’s session. Growth on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean came in better than expected, but inflation in the Eurozone ticked higher than expected and gave a positive jolt to the euro. UK budget on the other hand went quite smoothly for the pound. The bad news were countered by the tamed Bank of England (BoE) easing expectations. The BoJ refrained from changing policy today.
For now, the US Dollar remains bid despite yesterday’s weakness, the 2-year yield spiked higher – as the Fed doves scaled back their Federal Reserve (Fed) cut bets. Investors continue to monitor the jobs data... and earnings!
Microsoft and Meta released their Q3 earnings yesterday, after the bell, and the results were good but the forecast and extra spending plans didn’t please, respectively. Apple and Amazon are due to announce earnings after the bell today.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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