XAU/USD

  • Built on the 2 week bull trend & after we beat last week's high on Friday at 2041/42 for a buy signal.

  • After Thursday's high exactly at resistance at 2049/50 prices reversed & made a low for the day on Friday exactly at the buy level of 2041/37 for up to 8 points profit.

  • At last it all came together after such a long period of sideways inaction & as I promised it was worth waiting for the breakout.  From 2041/37, we shot higher to the 2065 target & as far as 2088.

 

2088 happens to be the late December high so it is possible we will reverse from here. We still do not know if we are in a longer term bull trend, or if we are just testing the upper limits of a 4 year sideways consolidation. I would not try a short, that's too risky. I do favour a push higher so I would take a break above 2090 as a buy signal for Monday targeting 2097/99, perhaps as far as 2106/08.

We are overbought in the short term so a dip to support at 2074/71 is certainly possible. Watch for a low for the morning if tested - longs need stops below 2069 but a break lower should meet a better buying opportunity at 2065/62. Longs need stops below 2057.

WTI Crude April future

  • Initially finally beat resistance again at 7930/7980 for a buy signal but only reached 8085.

  • I wonder if this price action is a copy of what happened in Gold on Friday.

  • Prices dipped but held what should of course be support at 7980/7930, indicating that bull are gaining control at last.

Obviously bulls need prices to hold above 7980/7930 to confirm my buy signal for this week. Longs need stops below 7900.

If we do hold on to 7980/30 bulls will push for 8110/40 eventually & probably even 8200/20. I would even look for 8330/60 at some stage, although I cannot give you an idea of the timing unfortunately.

Chart

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