- Gold lost its bullish momentum after setting a new record high in the previous week.
- The technical outlook suggests that sellers remain on the sidelines.
- Investors will keep a close eye on geopolitics and US inflation data next week.
Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to make a decisive move in either direction this week as the broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength offset the increasing safe-haven demand for the precious metal. Developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and US inflation data could drive XAU/USD’s action next week.
Gold ignores renewed USD strength
Gold started the new week under bearish pressure and lost nearly 1% on Monday. While speaking at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from providing any fresh hints regarding the next policy step. Powell reiterated that risks are two-sided and that they will take policy decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. “The Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates quickly, will be guided by data,” he added. These comments allowed the USD to hold its ground and forced XAU/USD to stay on the back foot.
Although the USD preserved its strength on Tuesday after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the JOLTS Job Openings rose to 8.04 million in August from 7.71 million in July, Gold benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions and gained over 1% to erase all of Monday’s losses. Reports of the Israeli army mounting a ground invasion of Lebanon revived fears over a deepening and widening conflict in the Middle East.
Early Wednesday, news of Iran firing about 200 ballistic missiles on Israel and Israel vowing to retaliate against the attack helped Gold find demand. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran had made a “big mistake” and “will pay,” further escalating tensions. As the USD recovery picked up steam in the second half of the day, however, XAU/USD struggled to gather bullish momentum and closed the day little changed. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that employment in the private sector rose by 143,000 in September, surpassing the market expectation of 120,000 and supporting the USD.
The data published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Thursday that the business activity in the service sector continued to expand at an accelerating pace in September, with the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improving to 54.9 from 51.5 in August. The USD capitalized on this report and made it difficult for Gold to rebound.
On Friday, the BLS announced that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 254,000 in September, surpassing the market expectation of 140,000 by a wide margin. Additionally, August’s NFP growth of 142,000 was revised higher to 159,000. Other details of the employment report showed that the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.1%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, ticked up to 4% from 3.9% in August. Gold failed to stage a rebound after upbeat US labor market data.
Gold investors stay focused on geopolitics, await US inflation data
The US economic calendar will not offer any high-tier macroeconomic data releases in the first half of next week. On Wednesday, The Fed will release the minutes of the September policy meeting.
Investors will scrutinize the discussions surrounding the decision to lower the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps). In case the publication reveals that policymakers preferred a large reduction in the interest rate as a first step to a gradual policy-easing, rather than as a response to growing signs of cooling conditions in the labor market, the immediate reaction could boost the USD. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are still pricing in a more than 30% probability that the Fed will opt for one more 50 bps cut at the next policy meeting in November, suggesting that the USD has more room on the upside if investors lean toward a 25 bps cut.
On the flip side, the USD could come under pressure and allow Gold to turn north if the minutes reflect that policymakers will keep an open mind about additional big rate cuts in case data points to an economic downturn or a worsening labor market outlook.
On Thursday, the BLS will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September. The monthly core CPI reading, which excludes prices of volatile items and is not distorted by base effect, could trigger a reaction in Gold. Markets expect the core CPI to rise 0.2% in September, following the 0.3% increase recorded in August. A reading of 0.2%, or smaller, could weigh on the USD. While an increase of 0.5% or more could cause investors to doubt the disinflation process and lift the USD, causing XAU/USD to turn south.
Market participants will also pay close attention to headlines coming out of the Middle East. If the crisis deepens with Israel retaliating against Iran and Iran not taking a step back, Gold could continue to take advantage of the safe-haven demand.
Gold technical outlook
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreated slightly below 70, reflecting sellers’ reluctance to bet on an extended decline. On the downside, the mid-point of the ascending regression channel coming from late June forms first support at $2,640. In case this level fails, the next support could be seen at $2,605-$2,600 (20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), static level) before $2,575 (lower limit of the ascending channel).
Looking north, interim resistance seems to have formed at $2,675 (static level) ahead of $2,700-$2,705 (round level, upper limit of the ascending channel).
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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