Gold soars to historic quarterly high as Dollar and yields diverge

With gold up over 15% in the first quarter and the dollar heading for its worst month since 2023, markets are sending a clear signal: safe-haven demand is shifting, and macro portfolios may need to adjust.

Gold's best quarter in over 25 years signals a historic breakout

As of late March 2025, Gold is on track to deliver its strongest quarterly performance since at least 1998, posting gains of over 15%. This isn't just a technical victory—it's a macro milestone, signalling renewed investor demand for hard assets amid rising geopolitical risks, fiat currency doubts, and a weakening global growth outlook.

Gold's long-term price structure remains firmly bullish. The two-year ascending price channel remains intact, and recent targets of $2,838, $3,000, and $3,034, which were projected as early as March 2025, have been successfully achieved.

The price cycle: Are we due for a pullback?

While the long-term trend is strong, Gold may be entering a natural pause or retracement based on established price cycle behaviour observed since 2023.

• The current rally began at $1,833 in 2023.

• Since then, Gold has completed four upward legs, with each followed by a retracement to the bottom of the price channel before moving to the next leg.

• The $3,034 level marked the completion of the fourth cycle.

If this pattern holds, the current test of $3,034 may give way to a retracement toward the $2,838 zone, which coincides with the bottom of the long-term price channel. As long as this level holds, it could mark the base for the next push toward $3,328—our next projected target in the ongoing gold supercycle.

Current levels to watch on the chart

• Immediate resistance: $3,061 (must break and hold for fresh upside).

• Short-term upside target: $3,132 (top of the price channel).

• Mid-zone support: $2,963–$2,936 (key support for trend health).

• Long-term trend support: $2,838 (bottom of the price channel and key cycle base).

As of writing, Gold is once again retesting the $3,034 level. A successful breakout above $3,061 could open the path to $3,132, but failure here would likely bring a pullback into the $2,936–$2,963 zone, with $2,838 acting as the last line of defence for the broader bull trend.

Gold Feb 2025 analysis

Gold price chart update 26 March 2025

US 10-year yield: Recovery under threat

Meanwhile, the US 10-Year Treasury Yield, which dropped as low as 4.16% in February, has staged a modest recovery after finding technical support at that level—a move highlighted in our March 3 analysis.

However, yields now face a significant hurdle: a 5-month major resistance zone, just below 4.40%. This area has historically acted as a pivot for medium-term direction.

• A successful breakout above this resistance could lead to a move toward 4.44%, 4.47%, and possibly 4.52%.

• On the flip side, failing to break higher puts yields at risk of rolling over again, with 4.22% and 4.16% acting as the last lines of defence for the bullish structure.

US 10 YR Yield Feb 28 2025 analysis

US 10 YR Yield price chart update March 26 2025

DXY: Macro headwinds keep the Dollar on the back foot

The US Dollar Index (DXY) adds a further dimension to the Gold and yield story. After peaking at 110.00 in January, DXY has dropped to 102.84, wiping out nearly 50% of its four-month rally.

Despite a brief recovery attempt, bulls have been unable to reclaim the critical 104.00 level, which now serves as a key multi-month resistance zone.

DXY technical outlook:

• Resistance: 104.00, 104.46, 105.96.

• Support: 103.25, 102.84, 102.00.

With falling inflation, slowing growth indicators, and softening Fed language, the dollar is losing its yield advantage, especially as other central banks dial back their dovish stances or adopt more hawkish tones.

USD (DXY) March 25 2025

How these three interact: A macro picture in motion

Gold, US Treasury yields, and the US Dollar don't move in isolation—they interact, creating a layered macro narrative.

Current intermarket correlation:

Asset direction macro implication

Gold-Bullish - Disinflation hedge, fiat scepticism, geopolitical fear

10-YR Yield - Sideways, Market doubts Fed's hawkish stance

DXY- Bearish - Yield compression, global rate convergence

Historically, rising yields and a strong dollar have suppressed Gold. But we are now witnessing a unique divergence: Gold is rallying even as yields try to stabilize and the dollar weakens. This suggests that Gold is driven by deeper forces than real rates—namely, long-term fiat devaluation, central bank buying, and political uncertainty.

What could shift this narrative?

Several macro and technical events could disrupt or reinforce the current setup:

• A Fed surprise (more hawkish tone) could boost yields and support the dollar, slowing Gold's rally.

• A clear break below 4.16% in yields or 102.84 in DXY would confirm a shift toward looser financial conditions, which is bullish for Gold.

• Geopolitical events or renewed equity market volatility could accelerate safe-haven demand.

 Final thoughts: Gold remains in vharge – For Now

Gold's breakout is historic—but not irrational. It reflects structural market shifts, not just technical momentum. While a pullback may be due based on the price cycle, support remains firm, and the macro backdrop is increasingly gold-friendly.

With yields capped, the dollar under pressure, and risk markets showing signs of exhaustion, Gold appears poised to remain a preferred destination for capital seeking safety, stability, and real returns.

Unless the US 10YR yield and the DXY can both reclaim critical resistance zones, Gold's long-term channel remains intact, and $3,328 is the next technical horizon.