Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles around $2,900 in dull trading

XAU/USD Current price: $2,899.45

• The US Dollar retains the soft tone seen in the previous week amid tariffs-related concerns.
• The Federal Open Market Committee will release the Minutes of its latest meeting on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD trades with a soft tone in the near term, but the downside remains limited.

Spot Gold trades uneventfully at around the $2,900 threshold, as United States (US) markets are closed due to the President’s Day holiday. Canada also celebrates a holiday called Family Day, although banks in some provinces remain open. Nevertheless, market activity is restrained, with choppy action across the FX board.

The US Dollar (USD) retains the weak tone triggered last week by relief headlines, as US President Donald Trump refrained from announcing detailed reciprocal tariffs. At the beginning of the week, President Trump announced levies on all aluminium and steel imports of 25%  and threatened to unveil more taxes later in the week, which he finally did not.

Meanwhile, higher-than-anticipated US inflation reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkishness, adding pressure on the USD. The US macroeconomic calendar includes this week the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the January meeting.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD pair remains bullish. The daily chart shows that the pair consolidates at the lower end of Friday’s range, yet it also develops above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,826. The 100 and 200 SMAs remain far below the shorter one but retain their upward slopes. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated from extreme overbought readings but lost their downward strength well into positive levels.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, however, the XAU/USD pair is neutral-to-bearish. A flat 20 SMA provides immediate resistance at $2,908.10, while technical indicators lack directional strength yet hold below their midlines, suggesting buying interest is scarce. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs continue to advance below the current level, but far to become relevant in the near term.

Support levels: 2,889.80 2,876.90 2,863.50

Resistance levels: 2,908.10 2,925.10 2,942.50