Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD record rally pauses on Trump’s tariff concession


  • Gold price builds on Friday’s pullback from record highs of $3,245 early Monday.  
  • Trump’s lower tariffs on Chinese electronics and chips offer relief to markets.
  • Technically, Gold could see a brief correction before the next leg up.

Gold price is sustaining its retreat from all-time highs of $3,245 reached on Friday, reverting toward $3,200 early Monday. 

Gold price keeps a close eye on tariff talks

Having posted an outstanding 6.5% weekly gain, Gold price kicks off a new week on the back foot, pausing its three-day record-setting rally. The latest downtick in Gold price could be attributed to the positive shift in risk sentiment following a tumultuous week.

US President Donald Trump’s tariff concession on the Chinese electronics supply chain, hopes of more stimulus coming from China and Beijing’s stance of ignoring further US responses have offered markets some relief, diminishing the safe-haven appeal of the Gold price.

Trump clarified late Sunday that there will be no tariff exemption on semiconductors and the electronics supply chain but these products will be subject to the existing 20% tariffs on fentanyl and not the 145% levies.

This comes after China said on Friday that it will ignore further US responses after raising tariffs on US good to 125%, in retaliation to Trump’s 145% tariffs.

Meanwhile, Chinese policymakers vow to step up stimulus to cushion the world's second-largest economy from the impact of the escalating trade war with the United States (US).

Gold price also bears the brunt of some progress on the US-Iran geopolitical talks. According to Reuters, US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke for around 45 minutes on Saturday, with the Trump administration reportedly satisfied with the first round of talks. The second round of negotiations are expected to continue later this week.

That said, any dip in Gold price is likely to be bought in as traders remain wary about tariff talks and ahead of Wednesday’s Chinese first-quarter growth figures. Markets also remain unnerved as the US earnings season begins later this week.

In the meantime, Gold traders will look forward to China’s March trade data. However, the data is unlikely to show the full impact of the US-Sino trade war. Later in the day, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to speak. Their take on Trump’s tariffs and hints on the Fed’s next interest rate move could provide some trading incentives in Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased from the overbought region to currently trade near 69, suggesting that the corrective pullback will likely be shallow.

The first area of contention for sellers is at the $3,200 threshold, below which Friday’s low of $3,176 will be challenged.

Additional declines could test the $3,100 round level, followed by the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance-turned-support at $3,074.

Conversely, the record high of $3,245 is the immediate topside barrier for Gold buyers. Scaling that level will open the door toward the $3,300 mark.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD bounces off lows, retests 1.1370

EUR/USD bounces off lows, retests 1.1370

Following an early drop to the vicinity of 1.1310, EUR/USD now manages to regain pace and retargets the 1.1370-1.1380 band on the back of a tepid knee-jerk in the US Dollar, always amid growing optimism over a potential de-escalation in the US-China trade war.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD trades slightly on the defensive in the low-1.3300s

GBP/USD trades slightly on the defensive in the low-1.3300s

GBP/USD remains under a mild selling pressure just above 1.3300 on Friday, despite firmer-than-expected UK Retail Sales. The pair is weighed down by a renewed buying interest in the Greenback, bolstered by fresh headlines suggesting a softening in the rhetoric surrounding the US-China trade conflict.

GBP/USD News
Gold remains offered below $3,300

Gold remains offered below $3,300

Gold reversed Thursday’s rebound and slipped toward the $3,260 area per troy ounce at the end of the week in response to further improvement in the market sentiment, which was in turn underpinned by hopes of positive developments around the US-China trade crisis.

Gold News
Ethereum: Accumulation addresses grab 1.11 million ETH as bullish momentum rises

Ethereum: Accumulation addresses grab 1.11 million ETH as bullish momentum rises

Ethereum saw a 1% decline on Friday as sellers dominated exchange activity in the past 24 hours. Despite the recent selling, increased inflows into accumulation addresses and declining net taker volume show a gradual return of bullish momentum.

Read more
Week ahead: US GDP, inflation and jobs in focus amid tariff mess – BoJ meets

Week ahead: US GDP, inflation and jobs in focus amid tariff mess – BoJ meets

Barrage of US data to shed light on US economy as tariff war heats up. GDP, PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports to headline the week. Bank of Japan to hold rates but may downgrade growth outlook. Eurozone and Australian CPI also on the agenda, Canadians go to the polls.

Read more
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025