Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pressuring fresh record highs

XAU/USD Current price: $2,821.47

• US President Donald Trump's first round of tariffs triggered panic in the financial world.
• United States employment data and the Bank of England stand out this week.
• XAU/USD set to extend gains beyond $2,825 amid resurgent demand for safety.

Spot Gold benefited from a risk-averse environment, with XAU/USD advancing beyond the $2,800 mark ahead of the American session opening. Fears are dominating financial markets after United States (US) President Donald Trump announced tariffs on three of its major trading counterparts.

Trump announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% levies on Chinese imports on Saturday while anticipating he will also target the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom, spurring concerns about a trade war that would disrupt global supply chains. Safe-haven assets soared while worldwide indexes edged sharply lower. Authorities from the affected countries rushed to announce countermeasures with different degrees of detail.

The panic mood, however, receded during American trading hours. Wall Street started the day with sharp losses but trimmed a good part of those following headlines that cooled down concerns, as Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said tariffs against the country would be paused after announcing retaliatory levies over the weekend.

As for the bright metal, it benefited throughout the first half of the day from the dismal sentiment, extending gains while the USD retraced. As a result, XAU/USD reached a fresh all-time high of $2,825.39, trading nearby at the time being.

The macroeconomic calendar will feature the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision this week and US employment-related data, including the ADP survey on Employment Change and the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report. Nevertheless, tariffs and the trade war are likely to dominate financial markets.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the pair trades inside a bullish channel, retreating just modestly from the upper end of the figure. Still, the upward momentum remains intact, and higher highs are in sight. In the mentioned time frame, technical indicators have partially lost their bullish strength but continue advancing within overbought territory. At the same time, the pair develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating north above the 100 and 200 SMAs while providing dynamic support at around $2,726.

The near-term picture suggests buyers retain control despite a short pause. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators reached overbought readings before turning flat, reflecting the ongoing retracement instead of suggesting a potential change in the dominant direction. At the same time, all moving averages gained upward traction far below the current level, with the 20 SMA at around $2,786.50.

Support levels: 2,804.50 2,786.50 2,772.00

Resistance levels: 2,825.20 2,840.00 2,855.00