Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD on track to test $2,000

XAU/USD Current price: $1,984.26

• European Central Bank held rates steady after ten consecutive hikes.
• The United States Gross Domestic Product rose by more than anticipated in Q3.
• XAU/USD bullish potential intact after first-tier events, $2,000 in sight.

Spot Gold peaked early Thursday at $1,993.44 a troy ounce, edging lower ahead of Wall Street’s opening and following some relevant news. On the one hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its decision on monetary policy, and as widely anticipated, policymakers held fire after ten consecutive hikes. President Christine Lagarde and co made a point on rates, declaring the decision was unanimous, adding that discussing rate cuts is out of the table for now, and finally noting that they can not confirm rates would not be any higher. Still, the poor economic performance of the Euro Zone was the real reason for the on-hold decision, despite policymakers not saying so.

The US Dollar ticked higher with the news, gaining additional ground after the release of the United States (US) preliminary estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The report showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 4.9% in the three months to September, above the 4.2% expected and much better than the previous 2.1%. The US economy confirmed its resilience. Still, market players pondered Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell’s words, saying the central bank needs below-trend growth to assist policymakers with their battle against inflation.

Trading was choppy after the events, but after the dust settled, risk turned off. Stock markets are on the back foot, while XAU/USD recovers amid renewed demand for safety.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD is up for a second consecutive day, still overbought in the daily chart. The bright metal keeps developing above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA extending its advance below directionless longer ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, consolidate within overbought readings without any other sign of upward exhaustion. The monthly peak at $1,997.17 provides immediate resistance.

For the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the upside. XAU/USD is meeting near-term buying interest around a flat 20 SMA, while the longer ones maintain their bullish slopes far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators have bounced from around their midlines, in line with another leg north.

Support levels: 1,977.65 1,964.30 1,953.30  

Resistance levels: 1,997.20 2,008.10 2,011.95

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