Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD needs acceptance above 2,660 to unleash additional recovery


  • Gold price sits at eight-day highs above $2,650 early Thursday, eyeing a weekly rebound.
  • Geopolitical risks continue to support the traditional safe-haven Gold price ahead of Fedspeak.
  • Gold price must scale 50-day SMA resistance at $2,660 as daily RSI peeps into the bullish zone.    

Gold price is sitting at the highest level in over a week above the $2,650 barrier in the Asian trading hours on Thursday. All eyes remain on the speeches from several US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and Russia and Ukraine geopolitical updates, in the absence of top-tier US economic data releases.   

Gold price buyers appear unstoppable

Gold price extends its recovery mode into a fourth straight session early Thursday, helped by a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields.

The USD rallied hard on Wednesday, tracking the sharp gains in the US bond yields as traders reinforced the Trump trades optimism, digesting hawkish Fed commentary and poor 20-year bond auction results.

Most of the Fed officials who spoke on Wednesday sound a bit hawkish, prompting markets scale back their expectations of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in December.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that “the US central bank should pursue a cautious approach on monetary policy.” She was the most hawkish of the lot. Fed Governor Lisa Cook noted that timing of further interest-rate cuts will depend on coming data, leaving the central bank’s decision at its December meeting uncertain.

However, Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that “now is the time to dial back restrictiveness of policy. I see full employment, inflation trending lower and solid growth.” Boston Fed President Susan Collins also sounded dovish, saying that “some additional rate cuts are needed as the policy is still restrictive.”

Markets are now pricing in a 52% chance of 25 bps Dec Fed rate cut, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows, down from about 83% seen a week ago.

Despite the hawkish shift in the Fed expectations and Trump trades optimism, Gold price stood tall and benefited from intensifying geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Russia, on Wednesday, staged “a massive information-psychological attack” against Ukraine by spreading a fake warning, purportedly from Ukrainian military intelligence, about an imminent mass air attack.

This response came in after Russia's Defence Ministry confirmed Tuesday that Ukraine fired six US-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) missiles at Bryansk region, just days after US President Joe Biden allowed the Ukrainian use of American-made weapons to strike inside Russia. The Kremlin also threatened a nuclear response to Ukranian’s non-nuclear attacks.

Amidst rife Russia-Ukraine conflict, Gold price is likely to stay supported but the upcoming Fed commentaries could reinforce sellers. Additionally, if risk-aversion hits the roof in the sessions ahead, the USD could regain traction on a flight to safety, capping the Gold price upside.

Traders remain nervous after the American AI giant Nvidia Corp.’s lackluster revenue forecast. Nvidia’s revenue rose 94% to $35.1 billion in the fiscal third quarter with the data centre unit, the biggest division, seeing its revenue double from a year earlier to $30.8 billion.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price appears to lean in favor of buyers as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) prods the 50 level to the upside. The indicator is currently just above 50.

However, an impending Bear Cross could be a headwind for Gold price. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is closing in to cut the 50-day SMA from above. If that happens on a daily closing basis, it will validate the bearish crossover.

Gold buyers need a daily candlestick closing above the 50-day SMA at $2,660 to unleash additional recovery toward the 21-day SMA at $2,680.

The $2,700 threshold will be the next significant target for buyers.

Conversely, failure to find acceptance above the 50-day SMA at $2,660 on a daily closing basis could reinforce sellers toward the $2,600 threshold.

Tuesday’s low of $2,610 will be tested ahead of that.

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD struggles to hold above 1.0400 as mood sours

EUR/USD struggles to hold above 1.0400 as mood sours

EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades near 1.0400 following the earlier recovery attempt. The holiday mood kicked in, keeping action limited across the FX board, while a cautious risk mood helped the US Dollar hold its ground and forced the pair to stretch lower. 

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD approaches 1.2500 on renewed USD strength

GBP/USD approaches 1.2500 on renewed USD strength

GBP/USD loses its traction and trades near 1.2500 in the second half of the day on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) benefits from safe-haven flows and weighs on the pair as trading conditions remain thin heading into the Christmas holiday.

GBP/USD News
Gold drops to $2,620 area as US bond yields edge higher

Gold drops to $2,620 area as US bond yields edge higher

Gold struggles to build on Friday's gains and trades modestly lower on the day near $2,620. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges slightly higher above 4.5%, making it difficult for XAU/USD to gather bullish momentum.

Gold News
Bitcoin fails to recover as Metaplanet buys the dip

Bitcoin fails to recover as Metaplanet buys the dip

Bitcoin hovers around $95,000 on Monday after losing the progress made during Friday’s relief rally. The largest cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high at $108,353 on Tuesday but this was followed by a steep correction after the US Fed signaled fewer interest-rate cuts than previously anticipated for 2025. 

Read more
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures