XAU/USD Current price: $2,026.93
- Odds for a Federal Reserve May rate cut continue to decrease, weighing down sentiment.
- The US Dollar eases alongside government bond yields, Wall Street trades with a soft tone.
- XAU/USD consolidates gains near $2,030, buyers may push further up.
Spot Gold extends its upward route on Tuesday, posting gains for a fourth consecutive day. XAU/USD trades around $2,030, its highest in over a week. The US Dollar suffers from mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer, as officials have been anticipating. Investors bet against the Fed amid signs of a resilient United States (US) economy, but policymakers never stopped warning against such bets. The CME Group FedWatch Tool now shows market players are moving their bets towards June. The odds for a 25 basis points (bps) March rate cut had decreased to 34.4%, while June ones increased to 55.1%.
The US Dollar is not the only one on the back foot. Wall Street also trades in the red, although losses remain contained amid earnings reports partially offsetting the dismal mood. Finally, it is worth adding government bond yields recovered ground, with lower yields adding to the broad USD weakness.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows an increased bullish potential. The bright metal is trading above its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in over a week. At the same time, the longer moving averages gain upward traction far below the current level, with the 100 SMA providing dynamic support at around $1,995.35. Finally, the Momentum indicator remains directionless, just below its 100 level, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator maintains its bullish slope at around 51, skewing the risk to the upside.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD lost momentum but holds on to gains, limiting the risk of a steeper slide. The 20 SMA heads firmly north, far below the current level, reflecting the ongoing momentum, while the longer moving averages remain directionless. XAU/USD hovers around a flat 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, eased from near overbought readings, reflecting the ongoing retracement rather than suggesting an upcoming leg south.
Support levels: 2,011.40 1,995.35 1,976.50
Resistance levels: 2,032.50 2,045.20 2,064.90
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