Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extended its monthly decline as investor stay away from safe-haven assets

XAU/USD Current price: $1,939.21

• Hawkish words from central bank officials raised doubts about 2024 rate cuts.
• The United States will publish the October Consumer Price Index on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD picked up after piercing a Fibonacci support, bulls have no say at the time.

Spot Gold retains the sour tone, with XAU/USD extending its slide to $1,918.35 on Tuesday, its lowest in almost a month. Save-haven assets remain unattractive despite easing optimism, with the US Dollar up only against Gold and the JPY on a daily basis.

Global policymakers insist on their hawkish remarks, aiming to cold down speculation that the tightening cycle is over and that rate cuts are on the table for 2024. Speculative interest has lifted bets on rate cuts after most major central banks refrained from hiking rates for two or more consecutive meetings, as restrictive financial conditions undermine economic growth. Still, inflationary levels are still above what policymakers believe are comfortable levels, and the risk of an uptick in price pressures is high. Furthermore, labor markets are mostly tight, which does not help the case for the economy slowing enough for inflation to recede.

Investors may get clearer clues from the United States (US) on Tuesday, as the country will publish October inflation figures.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows the risk skews to the downside, as technical indicators aim marginally lower within negative levels. Still, the pair recovered above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the daily advance between $1,810.41 and $2,009.34 at $1933.20, an immediate support level. At the same time, the intraday slide briefly pierced the 100 and 200 SMAs, which remain directionless, but XAU/USD currently trades above them. Finally, the 20 SMA remains directionless, far above the current level.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside, as the pair trades below a bearish 20 SMA, while the 100 SMA remains above the shorter one. The 200 SMA, on the other hand, remains directionless below the current. Technical indicators, in the meantime, gain upward traction but with limited momentum and within negative levels, falling short of anticipating another leg north.

Support levels: 1,933.20 1,923.10 1,909.80

Resistance levels: 1,965.30 1,978.30 1,989.00   

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