Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD defends critical support line as Russia-Ukraine war flags growth risks


  • Gold price is at a critical juncture as the Ukraine crisis fuels growth concerns.
  • Russia-Ukraine peace talks end with no progress, updates in focus.
  • Gold bulls have managed to defend the rising trendline, what next?

Gold price once again displayed good two-way price action on Monday, with persistent volatility on incoming headlines concerning the Russia-Ukraine war. Gold regained ground above the $1,900 mark in the first half of the day, as risk sentiment soured on the Western sanctions over the weekend that banned Russia from the SWIFT international payment system. In response to that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered nuclear deterrence on high alert. Further, Washington Post (WaPo) reported, citing a US administration official, “Belarus is preparing to send soldiers into Ukraine in support of the Russian invasion. However, the tide turned in favor of gold bears after the market mood turned positive, as the peace talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations kicked in. Amid risk-recovery, gold price lost ground once again below $1,900 even as the Russia-Ukraine negotiations ended with no progress.

Gold price is looking to extend the previous downside on Tuesday, as the US dollar remains strongly bid amid a return of risk-off mood. Hostiles continue despite the negotiations, as Russia is seen escalating violation in Ukraine amid the West’s plans to freeze as well seize Putin’s assets. Traders also prefer to hold the US currency heading into the first significant American economic data – the ISM Manufacturing PMI due later this Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony. Meanwhile, markets have started to grow more concerned about the damaging impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global economy, which is still reeling from the post-pandemic effects. Investors’ wariness could help keep a floor under gold price.

Gold Price Chart - Technical outlook

Gold: Daily chart

Gold’s daily chart shows that price has been forming higher lows, invariably defending the month-long rising trendline support, now pegged at $1,895.

If the bearish pressures intensify and sellers yield a daily closing below the latter, then a fresh downswing will come into force, opening floors towards Thursday’s low of $1,878.

The additional declines will call for a test of the ascending 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,862.

With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, holding firmer above the midline, gold bulls could stage a rebound from the abovementioned critical support, putting the $1,920 supply zone back on the buyers’ radars.

Further up, buyers could flex their muscles towards the $1,950 psychological level.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD pares gains below 1.0500 amid Conservatives German election win

EUR/USD pares gains below 1.0500 amid Conservatives German election win

EUR/USD pares gains back below 1.0500 in the European session on Monday. The pair still stays supportec by the German Conservatives Party win in the federal election, which revived hopes for better economic outlook. The upside remains elusive due to a cautious mood and mixed German IFO data. 

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD eases to near 1.2650 ahead of BoE-speak

GBP/USD eases to near 1.2650 ahead of BoE-speak

GBP/USD reverses gains to trade near 1.2650 in European trading on Monday. The pair eases as the US Dollar pauses its decline but the downside appears capped ahead of speeches from several BoE policymakers. 

GBP/USD News
Gold price remains stuck in multi-day-old trading range near all-time peak

Gold price remains stuck in multi-day-old trading range near all-time peak

Gold price continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction and remains confined in a multi-day-old trading range through the first half of the European session on Monday. Investors remain worried that Donald Trump's trade tariffs would trigger a global trade war which continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion.

Gold News
Solana drops below $160, liquidating $26 million in leverage as negative funding rate weighs in

Solana drops below $160, liquidating $26 million in leverage as negative funding rate weighs in

Solana price extends its decline and trades around $160 on Monday after falling over 11% last week. The recent correction in SOL has triggered a wave of over $26 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours and $110 million last week.

Read more
Money market outlook 2025: Trends and dynamics in the Eurozone, US, and UK

Money market outlook 2025: Trends and dynamics in the Eurozone, US, and UK

We delve into the world of money market funds. Distinct dynamics are at play in the US, eurozone, and UK. In the US, repo rates are more attractive, and bills are expected to appreciate. It's also worth noting that the Fed might cut rates more than anticipated, similar to the UK. In the eurozone, unsecured rates remain elevated.

Read more
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025