Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates ahead of Federal Reserve’s decision

XAU/USD Current price: $3,387.65

• US-China initial trade talks set to begin next Wednesday, according to Sec Bessent.
• The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold.
• XAU/USD consolidates below $3,400 as market players await the Fed’s decision.

Gold consolidates just ahead of the $3,400 mark on Wednesday, unchanged on a daily basis as investors await the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold, as uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s tariffs weighs on US policymakers.

The US Dollar (USD) has been confined to familiar levels throughout the day, as investors assess different news. On the one hand, headlines indicated that the US and Chinese trade teams will meet in the upcoming days to de-escalate tensions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipated initial talks would begin on Saturday, clarifying that those would not be advanced discussions.

On the other hand, stocks trade with a sour tone amid big losses in the tech sector, adding to the market’s caution.

With no action expected from the Federal Reserve (Fed), the focus will be on the following press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell is expected to face questions on the central bank’s independence and his relationship with President Trump, beyond those related to the future of monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it managed to post a higher high for the week before retreating. The risk remains skewed to the upside, although another corrective leg lower remains in the picture. In the mentioned chart, the bright metal keeps developing well above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,297.20, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the shorter one. However, technical indicators head south, holding within positive levels but suggesting buyers have paused.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bullish stance. The pair trades well above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA advancing above an also bullish 100 SMA. Additionally, technical indicators consolidate within positive levels, with the Momentum indicator heading marginally lower, not enough to confirm an upcoming slide.

Support levels: 3,392.25 3,277.60 3,263.10

Resistance levels: 3,430.20 3,444.25 3,468.30