Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD buyers retain control, with eyes on Fed Minutes

• Gold price sits at multi-day highs near $2,030 ahead of the Fed Minutes.
• US Dollar stays weak with the US Treasury bond yields, despite a tepid risk tone. 
• Gold buyers flex muscles after recapturing 21-day SMA near $2,025. RSI flips bullish.  

Gold price is looking to extend its winning streak into a fifth straight day on Wednesday, sitting close to the highest level in five days reached at $2,031 on Tuesday. A sustained US Dollar (USD) weakness combined with subdued US Treasury bond yields render positive for Gold price, as buyers await the US Federal Reserve (Fed) January meeting Minutes for the next push higher.  

Gold price braces for Fed Minutes and Fedspeak

The latest leg down in the US Dollar could be attributed to renewed fears of a United States (US) government shutdown. House Republicans have shifted from optimistically cautious to expecting a government shutdown unless a budget or spending stopgap is passed by March 1, according to a report carried by Axios. The government will go into a full shutdown by March 8.

The prolonged fiscal issue in the US is keeping the US Treasury bond yields on the defensive, exerting additional downside pressure on the US Dollar, even as risk sentiment remains tepid. Asian markets opened lower on Wednesday, tracking a negative Wall Street close. However, Chinese stocks have rebounded firmly on hopes of more stimulus coming through from Beijing to prop up the property market and the overall economy.

Gold price is taking advantage of the ongoing US Dollar weakness, looking forward to the release of the Fed’s January meeting Minutes, which could provide fresh hints on the timing of the first-rate cut this year.

in the absence of any high-impact US economic data releases on Tuesday. Also, of note remains the earnings result from the American tech-giant Nvidia on Wednesday, as it could have a significant impact on the market sentiment. Markets are currently pricing a 77% chance of a cut in June, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool. Markets now expect 92 basis points (bps) of cuts from the Fed this year, closer to the Fed's projection of 75 bps of easing and sharply below the 150 bps of cuts priced in by traders at the start of the year, per Reuters.

Also, of note will be earnings result from the American tech-giant Nvidia on Wednesday, which could have a significant impact on the market sentiment, in turn, influencing the value of the US Dollar and the Gold price. American chipmaker Nvidia stumbled on Tuesday, leading the decline in the US stocks, in anticipation of its earnings report.

Besides, Atlantic Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will make their respective scheduled appearances later on Wednesday, offering some food for thought for Gold traders.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price finally yielded a daily closing above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,023, on Tuesday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) extended its recovery above the midline, suggesting that the tide may have turned in favor of Gold buyers.

Therefore, the immediate resistance is now seen at the $2,033 level, where the 50-day SMA and the February 13  high coincide.

A sustained break above that level will generate fresh buying opportunities in Gold price, targeting the February 7 high of $2,044 and the $2,050 psychological barrier.

On the contrary, if Gold sellers fight back control, the 21-day SMA at $2,023 will need to hold the fort. A failure to defend the latter could fuel a fresh downswing toward the previous day low of $2,015, followed by the rising trendline support that aligns at $2,011.

The upwsrd-pointing 100-day SMA at $2,002 will act as a tough nut to crack for Gold sellers.