Gold is stuck in a narrow range and could suffer a downside break if the Fed stresses on overshooting the neutral interest rate.
At press time, the yellow metal is trading at $1,196, having clocked a seven-day high of $1,211 and ten-day low of $1,192 earlier today.
Essentially, gold has created a big bearish outside-day candle today, still, the immediate bias remains neutral, the technical chart indicates.
Daily chart
-636731552735892079.png)
As can be seen, the yellow metal is trapped inside a channel since the end of August. A close above the top end of the channel would signal a continuation of the rally from the recent low of $1,160 and may allow a break above the trendline sloping downwards from April highs.
Meanwhile, a break below the channel support could be considered a sign the corrective rally has ended and could yield a re-test of the August low of $1,160.
Focus on the Fed
The US central bank is seen raising rates by 25 basis points next week. Further, there is widespread belief that the Fed is on autopilot until neutral is reached. All this is already priced-in by the markets.
More importantly, the market is not pricing in rate hikes beyond neutral. As a result, the US dollar - gold's biggest nemesis - would pick up a strong bid only if the central bank stresses overshooting inflation. In that case, gold could drop below the August low of $1,160.
On the other hand, the yellow metal will likely rise sharply if the Fed evinces tolerance to above-target inflation. It is worth noting that the dollar index is already on the defensive, as indicated by the head-and-shoulders breakdown. Hence, prospects of gold witnessing a bullish channel breakout are high.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends recovery beyond 1.0400 amid Wall Street's turnaround
EUR/USD extends its recovery beyond 1.0400, helped by the better performance of Wall Street and softer-than-anticipated United States PCE inflation. Profit-taking ahead of the winter holidays also takes its toll.
GBP/USD nears 1.2600 on renewed USD weakness
GBP/USD extends its rebound from multi-month lows and approaches 1.2600. The US Dollar stays on the back foot after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher. Nevertheless, GBP/USD remains on track to end the week in negative territory.
Gold rises above $2,620 as US yields edge lower
Gold extends its daily rebound and trades above $2,620 on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield declines toward 4.5% following the PCE inflation data for November, helping XAU/USD stretch higher in the American session.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.