Gold Price Forecast: 21-DMA limits XAU/USD’s bullish potential ahead of Fed minutes

• Gold price battles 21-DMA as falling Treasury yields counter DXY’s strength.  
• Fed minutes could pour cold water on the central bank’s hawkish turn.
• 100-DMA will continue capping the downside, as bulls crave for more gains.

With the return of full markets, bulls flexed their muscles and drove gold price to the highest level since June 17 at $1815. Gold, however, failed to sustain at higher levels and pulled back sharply to finish the day below the $1800 level. Delta covid flareups combined with discouraging German ZEW Survey and US ISM Services PMI re-ignited concerns over the global economic recovery, which boosted the safe-haven flows into the US dollar and Treasuries. As risk-aversion swept off markets amid economic concerns and China’s technology sector crackdown, the US Treasury yields tumbled alongside the global stocks and boosted gold’s appeal. However, the unbeatable strength in the US dollar capped the gold’s upside.

Heading into the FOMC minutes showdown, gold price is once again testing bullish commitments above $1800, as the persistent weakness in the US rates and cautious market mood continue to underpin. Further, the US dollar’s modest retreat from overnight highs also helps revive the upbeat momentum in gold price. The next direction for gold depends on the Fed’s June meeting’s minutes dropping in at 1800 GMT later on Wednesday, which could disappoint the hawks, especially after the world’s powerful central bank delivered a hawkish surprise at its policy meeting last month. In the meantime, the broader market sentiment and covid updates will likely influence gold’s price action.

Gold Price Chart - Technical outlook

Gold: Daily chart

Technically, gold price still faces an uphill task to extend its break above $1800 with conviction, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to trend below the central line even though it is pointing northwards.

Therefore, daily closing above $1800 is critical to confirm a bullish reversal. The 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1804 offers immediate resistance.

A firm break above that level will call for a retest of the three-week highs of $1815. The next relevant upside hurdle is aligned around the $1830 level, where the 50 and 200-DMA close in.

On the flip side, the previous crucial resistance now support of 100-DMA at $1789 could limit any retracement. So long as this level holds, the bulls remain hopeful for further upside.

The next relevant cushion for gold bulls is seen at Monday’s low of $1785, below which the $1780 round figure could be brought back into play.