Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
On Friday, March 10, the US will release its jobs report for February. In the Fed’s thinking a ‘tight’ (strong) labour market is inflationary. So, if the jobs print comes in above 325K and average hourly earnings above 4.8% the Fed will see that as signalling more work to be done and that will raise expectations of a 6% terminal for the Fed.
However, the best opportunity for gold, the USD, and stocks would come from a big miss in the data. Taking a look at the reaction of gold over the US Labour Report we can see that gold has a tendency to push higher in the 3 days after the jobs report. So, would a big miss on Friday's jobs data give gold investors a good short-term opportunity in buying gold?
Major trade risks: The major trade risk here is if there is another strong jobs report which would naturally support the USD, yields, and weigh on gold.
Our products and commentary provides general advice that do not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD climbs above 1.0800 as weak PMI data weighs on USD
EUR/USD preserves its bullish momentum and trades at its highest level in nearly three weeks above 1.0800 in the American session. The US Dollar stays under heavy selling pressure following the disappointing ADP and PMI data, fuelling the pair's rally.
GBP/USD extends rally toward 1.2800 as USD selloff continues
GBP/USD continues to push higher toward 1.2800 and trades at its highest level since mid-June on Wednesday. The disappointing ISM Services PMI data from the US weighs heavily on the US Dollar and allows the pair to target new multi-week tops.
Gold jumps above $2,350 after US data
Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades at its highest level in over a week above $2,350. Following the disappointing ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims data from the US, the 10-year US yield stretches lower, helping XAU/USD extend its daily rally.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin erases gains from end of June, Ethereum declines while Ripple holds
Bitcoin wipes out gains from the last week of June and falls below $60,000 on Wednesday. Ethereum and top altcoins ranked by market capitalization erased gains as the inflation outlook worsened.
Fed Minutes Preview: Markets to focus on cues regarding the inflation outlook
The Minutes of the Fed’s June 11-12 policy meeting will be published on Wednesday. Details of Jerome Powell and Co’s hawkish hold and their inflation outlook will be scrutinized.